Melbourne v St Kilda

I can’t remember the last time Demons beat St Kilda, there’s been years of suffering for the Melbourne supporters but there is light at the end of the tunnel. Even though Melbourne have a piss-poor record against the Saints, they offer serious value in the second game of the round.

Demons head into the clash slight favourites at $1.85, and are aiming to win three in a row for the first time since 2010. Both teams are full of young talent, but Melbourne are currently in a much better place. They’ve won the last two whereas St Kilda have registered just one win all season against a Pies team in turmoil.

This won’t be the easy on the eye but the red and blue will have enough to see off a promising St Kilda outfit. Expect Max Gawn to be the real difference in the middle of the park and Jesse Hogan to have a real influence on the game in-front of the posts.

Hogan is Melbourne’s star man, he’s kicked nine from the opening five games, including three against both GWS and North Melbourne. He’ll add to this considerably today and with Demons’ recent record they’ll want to burst out the blocks, making Jesse a good option at $9 for the first goal.

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Melbourne - 1pt @ 1.85
Jesse Hogan - 1pt @ 9.00

Adelaide v Fremantle

Gee whiz, how bad are Freo this year, thank god I wasn’t one of many who tipped them to make the Grand Final! Things have got even worse, Fyfe, Johnson and Sandilands have all been added to the injury list. There is simply no way that the Dockers can get anything out of their trip to Adelaide.

Ross Lyon will have a sleepless Friday night thinking about Adelaide’s potent attack. The Crows have one of the best forward lines in the comp, they’ve all come to the party this season, and have four players in the top twenty kickers.

This fixture last year was remembered for the ding-dong battle between the Brownlow medallist and Danger, however this season has shown Freo are nothing if Fyfe isn’t firing. He’ll be massively missed on Saturday, expect Scott Thompson to have a field day in the middle. Get on the Crows to win, but $1.09 is far too short to back, get on them to win by 40+ at $1.67.

Old mate Eddie Betts is having another cracking season, the ex-Carlton player has kicked 16 already this season, averaging an impressive 3.2 a game. Eddie is always up and about in the early stages, always worth backing for the first especially when he’s priced at $9, even though his team is $1.09 to win.

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Scott Thompson to have 30 or more Disposals & Adelaide win the match boosted to $2! See here! T&Cs Apply
Adelaide 40+ - 1pt @ 1.67
Eddie Betts - 1pt @ 9.00

Geelong v Gold Coast

The Cats are bang in-form, they’ve won their last three outings including a forty eight point win against Port last time out. Even so, they look a very short price at $1.09 given the Suns have won three already this term.

Gold Coast will be low on confidence after back-to-back defeats, but there is certainly no shame in losing to North at the moment. However losing to my old team Brisbane is unacceptable. Tom Lynch has been the main man for the Suns, the big man has booted 22 majors already this season. And, of course they’ve got Garry Ablett returning to play his old club, Gary’s not been fully firing this season but he’ll be well up for this clash.

The Cats have been steered by Dangerfield and Selwood this season, and when that pair turn up they look like world beaters. Get on them to make it four wins in a row, they’ll cruise to victory, $1.63 for them to win by 40 is the bet.

I can’t not get behind Gary Ablett today on his return to Simonds Stadium. Selwood and Dangerfield have inflated the price you can get for Ablett having the most disposals, the Suns freak is well worth backing at $5.

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Tom Hawkins to Kick 5 or More Goals and Geelong Cats Win the Match is now $2.50! See here! T&Cs Apply
Geelong 40+ - 1pt @ 1.63
Gary Ablett - 1pt @ 5.00

GWS v Hawthorn

Hawks $1.87 to beat GWS? I’m all over that! The reigning champs are unbeaten in the last four. They looked gone in their last three but managed to sneak over the line, which is the sign of a really good team.

Hawthorn will take plenty out of last weekend, they were 15 down with just five left to play, the comeback inspired by Puopolo. Sam Mitchell has led the way for the Hawks again, but will need a bit of help from Hartung and Langford against the Giants. As they’ll be up against an in-from trio consisting of Scully, Coniglio and Shiel.

I worried for Hawthorn when Roughead was ruled out for a spell but numerous players have stood up to contribute with majors. Jeremy Cameron will be the main danger for the Giants, he kicked five goals in his first game last weekend and will be hungry for more.

Even though Cameron looks like he’ll be a handful, I still think the Hawks are a great price at $1.87, get on them to win outright. As mentioned Sam Mitchell has started this season where he left the last, the Hawks man will have the most disposals at $2.25.

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Dylan Shiel to have 28 or more Disposals & GWS win the match boosted to $4 odds! See here! T&Cs Apply
Hawthorn - 1pt @ 1.87
Sam Mitchell - 1pt @ 2.1

Richmond v Port Adelaide

Be warned, this could be a really poor game. It’s been painful to watch Richmond this season who’ve only managed one win to date. Port haven’t been much better, they’re single handily putting the Chinese off footy.

This game doesn’t really deserve a preview, but Oddschecker have insisted. One thing is guaranteed in this game is quarter time shenanigans, expect this do or die game to be heated.

If Robbie Gray had been missing for Port this year, they’d be down at the bottom with Fremantle. He’s in a different class compared to his team members, but will find it tough up against Cotchin and Martin. Home advantage has pushed me towards Richmond, they’ve got good players in key positions, they just need to be more direct with the footy. They’re pretty short considering their form but they won’t lose again.

To make this fixture bearable, I’ve hunted out a bit of value for my player bet. I’m backing Martin to have 30 possessions at $4.7.

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Richmond - 1pt @ 1.42
Dustin Martin - 1pt @ 4.7

Brisbane Lions v Sydney Swans

The third short priced favourite of the round, and again I’m tipping an easy win. The Swans have been on fire this season mainly due to Buddy’s comeback. Sydney lost narrowly to Adelaide in a classic a few weeks back but other than that have looked real contenders for the flag.

As expected the Lions have struggled again, they produced a shock victory against the Suns but come into this clash on the back of a hiding against the Bulldogs. There is nothing at all which makes me think Brisbane will get up, Hannebery, Franklin, Tippett and co will be far too good.
Get on the Swans to lead every quarter at $1.67 with Sportsbet. I’m also sticking with Buddy to kick the first, the big man rarely lets punters down, well worth a punt at $7.

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Get your stake back as a bonus bet if your head to head bet loses by 18 points or less! See here for Details. T&Cs Apply.
Sydney Swans - 1pt @ 1.67
Lance Franklin - 1pt @ 7.00

Carlton v Essendon

Carlton win! Yes you heard me correctly, I’m finally tipping my old boys to get the points. In all fairness they’re playing Essendon…

I always like watching these two clubs go at it, the arch-rivals will once again put on a fiery display. Both clubs have struggled to kick goals so don’t expect it to be a beautiful game, it will be gritty with plenty of big hits.

The Bombers were embarrassed last time out, with so many players missing this season they’ll struggle to bounce back after such a loss. The Blues on the otherhand displayed plenty of determination when they got one over Freo last weekend. The Dockers will come good at some point, therefore this game has a bit riding on it, as it’s out of these two and the Lions who’ll finish bottom.

Essendon rely heavily on Goddard and Zaharakis, but I think they’ll struggle against Murphy, Cripps and Gibbs in round six. The Carlton three were fantastic last weekend.
I can’t remember the last time I’ve seen Carlton at $1.42, but get on them to beat an Essendon team already looking forward to next season.

As mentioned the Blues will win, however I they havn’t got the forward to run away with it, back Essendon +29.5 at $1.52.

BOOKIE OFFER
Get your stake back as a bonus bet if your head to head bet loses by 18 points or less! See here for Details. T&Cs Apply.
Carlton - 1pt @ 1.42
Essendon +29.5 - 1pt @ 1.52

West Coast v Collingwood

The final game of the round pitches West Coast against Collingwood, only one game separates the two team on the ladder, but still Eagles are $1.1 for the win.

Unfortunately for the Pies, the Eagles are unbelievable at home and suspect on their travels. Even though Collingwood recorded a win last round, they simply don’t have a chance of getting anything at the Domain Stadium.

Trelor, Pendlebury and Adams hit some form on ANZAC Day but will have a completely different task ahead of them in the shape of Priddis. West Coast’s strength is in their big men, Kennedy, Nic Nat and Grundy will pose a huge challenge for Collingwood.

My tips is West Coast to win by 40+ points at $1.58, and also like the value in Luke Shuey to have 30 possesions, double into Kennedy to kick three or more at $4.9.

BOOKIE OFFER
Matt Priddis to have 31 or more Disposals & West Coast win the match is a boosted $2.15! See here! T&Cs Apply
West Coast 40+ - 1pt @ 1.58
Shuey/Kennedy - 1pt @ 4.9