Fevola landed both his Friday night picks, he's followed up with some pretty juicy selections today.
Essendon v North Melbourne
It was always going to be a struggle for the Bombers this season, they’re sitting 17th in the ladder and face six losses in a row. Pundits stupidly cast doubts on North pre-season, however their old boys have me questions whether I finished too young. Waite, Brown, Petrie and Harvey to name a few have been outstanding this season.
Essendon have ranked highly for disposals this season, and as for player betting the likes of Zaharakis, Merrett and Kelly could be worth a possession punt.
I can’t see anything else but a North win here, and an easy win at that. Jump on them to win by 40+ at $1.51. As I’ve already mentioned Waite is having an excellent season, he’s going to get plenty of chances against the Bombers, I’m on him to kick 6 or more at $6.
Hawthorn v Fremantle
Nothing is going for the Dockers, they’ve lost seven on the bounce and now face the reigning champions. I feel for their supporters, but I feel more for anyone who tipped them up for the flag pre-season! How wrong they were!
Lachie Neale will be tasked with keeping Mitchell quiet this weekend,
If you need any more info telling you that Hawthorn will cruise this, then you shouldn’t be punting on Footy. Jump on the Hawks to win, but I think the money is in the last quarter. Hawthorn were excellent in the last against the Tigers, and without Fyfe the Dockers midfield might however I doubt the youngster will get close to the Hawthorn gun. Mitchell’s team came from behind to win by 46 last time out against Richmond, and now have the home advantage against a broken squad. get a bit leggy. Get on Hawthorn to win the final by -11.5 at 1.94.
Gunston kicked four last time out after five against GWS the weekend before. He’s well worth backing to kick the first at $8.5.
GWS v Gold Coast
Gold cost on the other hand are a massive concern for their fans, they’ve been played off the park in their last four matches. Earlier on in the season it looked like Ablett and Hall would carry them to a few decent results this season, but they’ve gone off the boil in recent weeks.
If the Suns are to get anything out of this then the two time Brownlow Medallist will have to have a blinder, which he’s very capable of doing.
I’m sticking with the form book, GWS with Cameron are a dangerous outfit, and the Suns are on a rocky road at the moment. That said, beware of both Ablett and Hall. GWS will be too good, and will lead after every quarter at $1.35
Again I’m on the hunt for a bit of value as the match result markets are all very one sided. Even though it’s not massive, the $2.55 on offer for Cameron to kick 4 or more is a must-back for the weekend.
Brisbane v Collingwood
A loss to Brisbane will have huge consequences for the Magpies, a club of their stature shouldn’t be in the position they’re. Buckley’s men will be wary of the Lions recent home form, they battled and lost narrowly against Sydney but then accounted for the Suns.
The Pies should get their hands on the ball in the midfield, but they’ve struggled to convert. Only Alex Fasolo looks capable of kicking regular goals. If they can’t kick a decent amount against a Brisbane team who on average concede 122 points per game, I worry they could be battling for the wooden spoon.
There is real value Brisbane at the line, the Pies are there to be beaten! Get on at -6.5 at $1.92. Vice-captain Dayne Zorko didn’t have the best game against Port, but I expect him to bounce back and have 25+ disposals at $1.72.
Carlton v Port Adelaide
Port have also got their season back on track, they struggled early season but have also won their previous two fixtures. But, you have to question are Port a serious outfit? Or have they just faced two pretty piss-poor teams?
It’s a tough game to call, however the Blues best players are in-form, they’ve got home advantage, hence why I’m backing them at the line. Jump on the +12.5 on offer at $1.92.
There is some real value in my player bet for this round, I’m on Simpson to have 30 or more disposals and my boy Aaron Young to kick another three at $7.2.
Melbourne v Western Bulldogs
Western Bulldogs were turned over by North Melbourne but shocked quite a few when they bounced back to beat Adelaide last weekend. They’re a good team, their success has been built from the middle of the park, but they also showed last weekend they aren’t too bad in front of the posts either.
Melbourne are shocking everyone this season, and come off the back off a massive win against the Suns. Earlier on in the season it was all about Hogan, but now more players are joining in, the future is bright for the Demons.
As I’ve said they will win at the G, and my player bet is Nathan Jones to have the most disposals. There are some quality players in this market, which is why you can get the $5.5 for Jones.
West Coast v St Kilda
The Saints have improvement on last season showing, however at times they lack the poise and class to compete with the better teams this season. I’ve read a few pundits tipping a Saints upset this weekend, however I don’t think they’ll get close. This will be one of the most one-sided games of the round, my bet is the Eagles to win by 60+ at $3.
I’m backing West Coast’s two main men to get the job done on their home ground, Priddis will have over 30 disposals and Kennedy will kick three or more, the double pays $3.2.
At the G I’d normally give the Tigers some sort of chance, but not tonight, their wheels have fallen off. Richmond have shown glimpses of decent footy this season, but haven’t got close to stringing four quarters together. Once again they’ll be relying far too heavily on Martin, and even though Dustin is a gun, he won’t be able to tame Sydney’s midfield on his own.
Get on Sydney to be winning at half-time and fill-time at a pretty generous $1.62. Sydney will miss Kennedy, however in Hannebery they’ve got a freak who’s averaging over 30 disposals a game. I’m going to double him into a bloke who’s really impressed me, Isaac Heeney. Get on Hannebery having 30 more and Heeney to kick three or more at $4.9.