There is some serious value in the five AFL games on show today.
Brisbane Lions v Hawthorn Hawks
The Lions had their moments against Melbourne in round nine, but the way they finished the game - conceding nine of the last 12 goals - is a major concern. Brisbane have leaked an average of 136 points per game in the past three weeks, and the bad news is they host a Hawthorn team on the rebound this Saturday arvo at the Gabba. The brown and gold machine got good service from their second-tier players like Liam Shiels, Taylor Duryea, Isaac Smith and Billy Hartung in round nine in an ominous sign for the Lions. Back the Hawks to win by 10 goals ($2.15 with Luxbet) and score at least 121 points ($1.68 with Sportsbet).
Hawks to win by 10 goals - 1pt @ 1.45
Hawthorn to score 120+ - 1pt @ 1.79
Melbourne Demons v Port Adelaide
This is an eight-point game in Australia's red centre between the ninth-placed Demons and Port, who are 10th. The Power's mini resurgence was snapped by West Coast in round nine, while Melbourne did it a bit too comfortably against Brisbane. Saturday afternoon's clash will be the third time in as many years these two teams have met in Alice Springs and, while Port have won the previous two games, we think the Dees’ have their measure this time. Power defender Tom Jonas will miss the clash after being suspended this week. Our money is on Melbourne to win, paying around $1.70 with most corporates, and the first score of the game to be a Demons goal ($3.40 with bet365).
Melbourne - 1pt @ 1.7
Melbourne Goal - 1pt @ 3.6
St Kilda Saints v Fremantle Dockers
How many goals will Saints' skipper Nick Riewoldt boot this week? The Dockers do not have an appropriate match up for him. Zac Dawson will go to him, but is horribly out of form. The tall defender broke back into Fremantle's line-up in round nine but had a stinker, as he was reported and finished with just nine disposals. However, he was cleared by the Match Review Panel to play this week. With big back men Alex Pearce (broken leg) and Michael Johnson (hamstring/knee) both sidelined, it will be a long afternoon for Freo at Docklands. Go for St Kilda to win by at least 25 points ($2.02 with Luxbet) and Riewoldt to kick the first major ($9 with Sportsbet).
St Kilda to win by 25+ - 1pt @ 2.02
Nick Riewoldt - 1pt @ 13.00
Essendon Bombers v Richmond Tigers
Trent Cotchin returned to the Tigers line-up in round nine after a two-week injury layoff and did not miss a beat. Donning a black helmet to protect the jaw he fractured in round six, Cotchin got down and dirty in the scrimmages and racked up a career-high 39 touches in wet conditions against Freo as the Tigers won two in a row. They will extend that streak to three this Saturday night in the annual Dreamtime at the 'G blockbuster. The Bombers again struggled to kick a score at the weekend, finishing with just 63 points. Back Richmond to win by at least 45.5 points, paying around $2.25 with most bookies, and Cotchin to get at least 35 touches ($4.30 with Sportsbet).
Richmond to win by 46+ - 1pt @ 2.25
Trent Cotchin - 1pt @ 4.3
Adelaide Crows v Greater Western Sydney Giants
The Giants laid their 2016 intentions bare on Sunday with a composed win against the highly-rated Western Bulldogs, but round 10's assignment on the road against Adelaide will be just as tough. For all the bluster about how good the Crows' start to the season has been, they hold eighth spot on percentage only. They need another big scalp to be taken seriously. Saturday night's stoush in the City of Churches should be a classic, but after watching what the Cats did to the Crows in round eight, we are leaning towards the Giants in this one and are backing them to win, for which most corporates are quoting $2. However, it’s also worth a go on Adelaide’s Taylor Walker to bag the first snagger of the game ($10 with Sportsbet).
GWS - 1pt @ 1.92
Taylor Walker - 1pt @ 10.00