GWS v Collingwood
GWS can go second with a win but, to do so, they’ll have to do something they’ve never done before and beat Collingwood. This will be a good midfield battle because the Giants’ middlemen are in great form, but up against them are Pendlebury and Treloar, who rank amongst the best in the league. Collingwood have been inconsistent this year and had injury problems too, so I expect GWS to come out on top, but the win is very short at $1.11.
The Giants average a massive 110 points in the league, largely thanks to Jeremy Cameron. He’s kicked five or more on three occasions already this season, and got a hat-trick against Carlton last week. He’s coming back into vintage form and I fancy him to kick four or more against Collingwood at $2.25.
Jeremy Cameron 4+ Goals - 1pt @ 2.25
Gold Coast v Brisbane
The Queensland clash is always a fiery one, but both teams have been disappointing this season. However, the Suns are starting to find their feet, which was shown by a big win over the Saints. Brisbane have only one win all year, and their defence has been woeful. Gary Ablett and Aaron Hall will dominate the midfield battle, Tom Lynch will get plenty of chances, and I’m going for Gold Coast to win by 39+ at $2.15.
Lynch is averaging over three a game, he’s already kicked four or more seven times this year, so get on him this time to score 6+ this time at $3.4.
Gold Coast to Win by 39+ - 1pt @ 2.15
Lynch 6+ Goals - 1pt @ 3.4
Western Bulldogs v Richmond
The Dogs have already beaten the Tigers this season, and Richmond’s Finals chances disappeared after losing to Port last week. However, Trent Cotchin and Dustin Martin can compete with a good Dogs’ midfield, and I think a Richmond win could offer some value at $5.
Without Martin, the Tigers would have had a terrible year, and he still has a chance for the Brownlow. He’s had 30+ disposals in five of his last six, and he’ll do so again this time at $1.5.
Richmond to Win - 1pt @ 5.0
Martin 30+ Disposals - 1pt @ 1.5
Melbourne v Fremantle
After a surprising start to the season, Melbourne have lost four out of their last five. But Freemantle have been awful this season without Nat Fyfe, and they got well and truly smashed by Collingwood last time out. Melbourne’s form may be poor but they’ve lost to top teams, and I fancy them to come out on top in Darwin. The Melbourne win is available at $1.57.
Without Fyfe, Melbourne’s midfielders will find it pretty easy. Nathan Jones is averaging just under 28 disposals this season, he’s had over 30 in three of his last four games against better sides than Freo, and he’ll deliver the same this time out at $2.
Melbourne to Win - 1pt @ 1.57
Nathan Jones 30+ Disposals - 1pt @ 2.0
Carlton v Adelaide
Adelaide are in brilliant form having won six on the trot, whereas Carlton’s home form has deserted them and they come off three losses. The South Australians have one of the best forward lines in the game and Carlton lack a forward threat, and this is where this one will be decided. Get on the Crows at $1.17.
Eddie Betts averages a shade under three goals a game and has kicked 10 in his last three outings. I expect his good form to continue, and fancy him at $2.88 to score four or more against the Blues.
Adelaide to Win - 1pt @ 1.17
Eddie Betts 4+ Goals - 1pt @ 2.88
West Coast v North Melbourne
This is one of the big games of the weekend and West Coast are brilliant at home, having won seven in Perth this season by an average of 69 points! The Roos lost to Adelaide last time out and have suffered defeat in four of their last five. With that in mind, I can’t see past West Coast for this one, and the win is priced at $1.38.
Eagles’ star Andrew Gaff has averaged just under 30 disposals this season and gathered 35 against Essendon in his last game. I’m backing Gaff to have most disposals this time, which you can get on at $3.
West Coast to Win - 1pt @ 1.38
Andrew Gaff Most Disposals - 1pt @ 3.0
Essendon v St Kilda
The shocking Bombers have not won since Round 2 and St Kilda are a young, inconsistent side, so I think this will be one of the worst matches this weekend. The Saints had a big win against Geelong a couple of weeks’ back, and they won this fixture comfortably earlier this term. Six of St Kilda’s wins this season have been by 29 or more points, and I fancy them at -42.5 in the handicap market, available at $1.93.
Saints’ skipper Nick Riewoldt is always worth a punt to kick the first, and he’s good value to do so this week at $9.5
St Kilda -42.5 - 1pt @ 1.93
Nick Riewoldt First Goalscorer - 1pt @ 9.5