As usual, our AFL expert has identified some fantastic betting opportunities.
Greater Western Sydney Giants v Richmond Tigers
Richmond's last quarter against the Hawks was a worry. The Tigers trailed by 29 points at the final change in round 18 but conceded nine goals to two in the last term to go down by 70 points. GWS notched an important away victory against Port last round and should be able to get the job done in the nation's capital this week. The Giants have won their two previous games this season at their home away from home at Manuka. We're on GWS to win by at least 50 points ($2.25 with Luxbet) and the fourth term to be the highest scoring quarter ($3.40 with Sportsbet and Unibet).
GWS -49.5 - 1pt @ 2.25
Highest scoring quarter - 4th - 1pt @ 3.40
Hawthorn Hawks v Carlton Blues
They're two games clear on top of the ladder, and it would take serious balls to bet against the Hawks at York Park this Saturday arvo. Carlton have been impressive in the past two weeks in narrow losses to West Coast (eight points) and Sydney (six points) but Hawthorn are riding an 18-match winning streak at their Launceston fortress. The Blues have lost their past six games, and have never played at this venue before. Our money is on the Hawks to win by at least 50 points ($2.40 with Sportsbet) and Carlton to score between 61 and 75 points ($3.10 Sportsbet). They've done that the past two weeks.
Hawthorn -49.5 - 1pt @ 2.40
Total Carlton Points: 61-75 - 1pt @ 3.10
Collingwood Magpies v West Coast Eagles
Does anyone know how West Coast managed to win last Sunday? They lost the inside 50s 66-37, contested possessions 159-144 and tackles 99-85 but somehow managed to hold off Melbourne by six points. The fifth-placed Eagles need to keep winning if they are to break into the top four and that makes beating Collingwood in Saturday's twilight clash at the ‘G non-negotiable. But after two huge scares in the past fortnight against Carlton and Melbourne we reckon they will drop this one on a ground they do not play well. Back the Pies to win ($2.40 with Hills and Centrebet) but 2015 Brownlow medallist Matt Priddis to have at least 30 touches ($3 with Sportsbet).
Collingwood - 1pt @ 2.40
Priddis 30+ Disposals - 1pt @ 3.00
Brisbane Lions v Port Adelaide Power
The Lions finally broke through for a much-needed victory in round 18, but they should settle back into their losing ways against Port at the Gabba this Saturday night. Brisbane scored 128 points against the Bombers in round 18 - their highest total of the season - but they also have the league's leakiest defence, conceding on average 125 points per game. When these two teams met in round seven, the Power got it done by 77 points and we think they'll be fine this Saturday night. Back Port to win by at least 10 goals ($3.30 with Luxbet) and the Power to score at least 121 points ($2 with Sportsbet). They might have won last week but remember, the Lions still suck.
Port Adelaide -59.5 - 1pt @ 3.30
Port Adelaide - Over 120.5 Points - 1pt @ 2.00
North Melbourne Kangaroos v St Kilda Saints
This one is all about Boomer Harvey, who will break Michael Tuck's incredible VFL-AFL games record of 426. The Roos got a much-needed steadying victory over Collingwood in round 18 but this Saturday night come up against a St Kilda side who are up and about, having won their past three games. The eighth-placed Roos have a two-game buffer on the ninth-placed Saints, and a win at Docklands would all but seal their September place. With so much at stake, we're on the Kangas to lead at the end of every quarter, which is paying $2.50 with Sportsbet, and North’s Nick Dal Santo to get at least 30 touches against his old side ($2.75 with Sportsbet).
Roos lead at the end of every quarter - 1pt @ 2.50
Dal Santo 30+ Disposals - 1pt @ 2.75
Melbourne Demons v Gold Coast Suns
The undermanned Suns are coming off a solid win over fellow cellar dwellers Fremantle last weekend, but Melbourne will be too good at the home of footy this Sunday. The Demons put in a spirited performance in Perth against the Eagles in a narrow six-point defeat last week. They wasted opportunities in front of goal, failing to capitalise despite having almost double the amount of inside 50s as their hosts. There were no such problems when the Dees smashed the Suns in round seven, notching a 24.16 (160) to 14.3 (87) victory. Back Melbourne to win by 10 goals ($4.35 with Luxbet) and the first scoring play to be a Demons goal ($3 with Sportsbet and Hills).
Demons - -59.5 - 1pt @ 4.35
First Scoring Play - Demons Goal - 1pt @ 3.00
Fremantle Dockers v Sydney Swans
Bad news Freo fans – the Swans are going to ruin Pav’s massive milestone celebration. Dockers veteran and games-record holder will chalk up AFL appearance 350 at Subi this Sunday, but his injury depleted side will be no match for Sydney. Coach Ross Lyon confirmed earlier in the week that stalwarts Aaron Sandilands (ribs) and Michael Johnson (hamstring) are still not ready to return for the port club. But even if they were playing, they would still lose. We’re on the Swans to win by at least six goals ($2.30 with Luxbet) but Dockers gun Lachie Neale to help himself to at least 35 possessions ($2.40 with Sportsbet). He leads the AFL in disposals this season.
Swans -35.5 - 1pt @ 2.30
Neale 30+ Disposals - 1pt @ 2.40
Adelaide Crows v Essendon Bombers
Even by their own dreadful standards, Essendon were seriously bad in their loss to Brisbane at the weekend. On Sunday, they face what has become one of footy’s toughest road trips this season – playing the Crows at Adelaide Oval. This will be a twilight bloodbath in the City of Churches and we are tipping things to get ugly. The Crows are the AFL’s second highest scoring club this season and Essendon are, by far, the lowest scoring team in the league. Go for a ‘yes’ in bet365’s ‘Either team to win by 100+’ market, and here’s a hint – it’s not going to be the Bombers. We’re on Essendon to score less than 58 points, too. That’s paying $2 with bet365.
Either team to win by 100+: Yes - 1pt @ 4.75
Essendon Total Points: Under 57.5 - 1pt @ 2.00