The 'Finals' series begins this week in Europe with the Turkish Open being hosted once again at the Maxx Royal Montgomerie resort in Antalya. The course is a challenge off the tee with rough quite tangly and punishing. There are trees guarding tee shots and even some approach shots to the greens so all round accuracy is needed. It is worth noting that two bombers, Dubuisson and Koepka have won the two renewals of this event despite not being the straightest off the tee. In the final round of this event when birdies are needed to win length seems to play a factor, particularly on the par 5s. Therefore all types of golfers must be considered when thinking about a wager. Greens putt very smoothly and those with confident strokes who get the ball to the hole with speed will see many of them dropping.
McIlroy heads the top of the market at a proportionate 9/2. This is his first journey to the event and he can not be ruled out on putting surfaces that should grant him some rest bite from what he has been used to lately. These greens aren't particularly tricky and should boost McIlroy's confidence ahead of the last few events of the calendar year. Whether the 9/2 is of any value is another question around a layout on which he has no experience. If you drive the ball well the course is quite inviting therefore Rory has every chance. Upwards of 20 under will no doubt be needed to have a chance here on Sunday and with plenty capable of shooting those scores I see little appeal in investing in the tournament jolly. Matt Fitzpatrick relentlessly tees it up again in his quest to get into the worlds top 50. He showed his class once again last week contending right to the death. Possibly a bit of mental fatigue played its part on Sunday afternoon in Hong Kong and I'll reluctantly pass the boy wonder up as I see others in the market a shade more value.
First up and seeking his third win of the season is Danny Willet
. An impressive win in the Nedbank last year was followed up by his victory in Crans during the summer. With three other top 5 finishes this term Danny has been one of the hottest on tour. He lies second in the Race to Dubai and would have realistic ambitions of taking that title with some strong play over the next four weeks. This course probably rates as his best chance. A tree lined track that rewards long and straight driving. Danny is quite handy with his wedge also which will be important as this course is not overly long. He finished 4th here last year but it is worth noting that he was hospitalized at the start of that week with stomach problems and battled the pain all week to have a tilt at the title on Sunday. Bar a 3rd placed finish around a not too dissimilar track in Italy his recent form is quite modest. However, this course plays into his hands and with his Race to Dubai hopes I expect him to play well. His price is nothing better than fair, however outside of the favourite he is the most likely winner.
Danny Willett - 2pt e/w @ 25/1Lost 4pt
Our final two bets are handed to us by the market and can not be passed up. Ian Poulter
was a bit disappointing last week however I expect him to improve when he tees it up at the Maxx Royal course. Poulter loves this place and if he can get his lukewarm putter under some hot coals this weekend he will surely contend. He definitely feels more comfortable at this time of the year with five seconds and four of his nine wins coming in the month of November. This is when Poults turns it on and around a track where he shot 19 under in 2013 and 16 under in 2014 he holds every chance. He has three top 6 finishes to his name this year but when he was second in this event last year he had no top tens previous that season. Therefore the 25/1 quoted about Poults is worthy of investment and we'll take the chance that he putts better than normal.
Ian Poulter - 1.5pt e/w @ 25/1Lost 3pt
My final bet speaks for itself also in the 2013 champion Victor Dubuisson
. After a very dodgy Spring he has got his game together somewhat to post a few more consistent results. He arrives at a place that is right up his 'rue'. He shot 24 under in 2013 when blitzing the field and bursting onto the European scene. Last year was a different story. He opened with a 77 before rallying to take 15th place. His 14 under par total for his final 3 rounds last year beat the rest of the field comfortably. Therefore bar one round this lad probably would have won this event two years on the trot. His tail should be up heading here and I fully expect him to go well. I thought bookies would have been a bit more alive to this and I was expecting 28s or 33s max. The 45/1 on offer is definitely value, although the risk being his form this year isn't anything special.
Victor Dubuisson - 1pt e/w @ 45/1Won 56.25pt