Sandown R1 No.10 - MARWINZIG
She's appeared to have her chances of late but the key here is the step to a mile, she got back off a muddling tempo over 1400m at Cranbourne and made very good ground late (against pattern). Like the booking of B.Rawiller and with some speed engaged here from the right draw she looks a terrific chance to be storming home over the top of them late. Ticks plenty of boxes today.
Marwinzig - 1pt @ 8.00
Sandown R3 No.4 - CHAVUMA
He's done nothing at all wrong over the past month, progressing really well with each run thats culminated in a win at Bendigo two weeks ago over the 1300m. Jumped well, set a good gallop in transit and really extended nicely over the final 400m to win quite comfortably. There doesnt appear to be a whole lot of speed on paper which suits here and he'll have a big break on key rival at the turn. If he rates to what he did recently I see him winning this, 1400m no issue and pattern may suit those closer to the speed too?
Chavuma - 1pt @ 4.40
Sandown R5 No.1 - HE'S OUR ROKKII (NAP)
Been a touch frustrating up until recently but he did really put it all together here two weeks ago over the mile. Easily ran the quickest overall time of the three 1600m events (roughly 7-8 lengths quicker than closest!) on the day and did appear to have something up his sleeve. Inside draw might be a slight query but if Dunn can get off the fence it really should be all over. Only rises 0.5kg at the weights and meets a pretty limited bunch again. He'll be winning this onto better things.
He's Our Rokkii - 2pt @ 2.10
Newcastle R2 No.4 - DEPLOY
Was somewhat disappointing at Rosehill three weeks ago when he was a bit wayward (although none made ground on leader), blinkers have gone on for today which I fancy will sharpen him up and this is a significant drop in class. Fresh earlier this year he finished under a length away from Le Romain (since G1 winner!) which holds plenty of merit going forward. C.Reith will press forward in the small field and look to control things before lengthening around the bend.
Deploy - 1pt @ 1.90
Newcastle R6 No.14 - NANCY
She's a horse on the up in what is a quality field but I reckon she's got plenty of class, her run when returning at Randwick two weeks ago was outstanding - was very fresh mid race and forced to work three deep when unable to settle. Managed to peel at the bend and begin to chase but the leaders had things to suit and it was basically impossible to make ground if you were any more than three off the fence (her effort to come hard late was super!). Strips fitter and the 1350m is ideal, can have things run to suit from the box seat draw.
Nancy - 1pt @ 4.80
Doomben R6 No.3 - FALCHION
His win when leading at Ipswich two weeks ago was very good when made to work, held off a good one who had beaten the favourite in this race (form lines stack up). Drops 2.5kgs for that win and with the inside draw I anticipate he will again be the one leading, he's at his top from a fitness point of view and with a the weight relief should take plenty of catching. Third horse from his Ipswich win was a genuine city competitor and has since come out and won in dominant fashion!
Falchion - 1pt @ 4.60
Strathalbyn R5 No.4 - FLASK
This is a very poor race and as such, despite the fact she hasnt won for some time, this mare should be winning. She was a month between runs when sent to Morphettville over the 1400m where she acquitted herself well. Made ok ground in a race dominated by those closer to the speed so the effort was better than it appears on paper. That winner went on to win again and then go close in a feature race last Saturday. Those form lines should have her beating this bunch of plodders.
Flask - 1pt @ 2.30