Kyneton R1 No.5 - ASERA
Was very good getting to the 1700m at Sale when rolling to the front, battled on gamely to the line but just found the trip a bit much. Like the wide draw/drop back to 1450m and the fact he's a month between runs (yes fresh!) as he'll find the fence from the wide alley and take plenty of catching. At his top and will be winning today, this race lacks quality. Was beaten by a pretty good one last start who's been competitive with city class horses.
Asera - 1pt @ 2.35
Kyneton R3 No.11 - VANILLA ICE CREAM
Made very good ground returning fresh at Cranbourne when she couldnt go the early speed but managed to find the line well, winner went all the way as was the pattern of the night so the run was excellent. Blinkers go on for the first time and with the run she strips fitter, gets an extra 100m and a favourable draw. Could be a nice horse in the making and she'll be winning today.
Vanilla Ice Cream - 1pt @ 3.20
Sunshine Coast R1 No.4 - ELUSIVE ELEMENT
Was given an awful ride last start at Doomben when he was just a monty beaten over the 1350m, not withstanding he found the line nicely and gave every indication he'd appreciate more ground at this point of his prep. Like the nine day turn around as he's clearly going well, inside draw tells me he'll be midfield looking to improve at the 600m and if he gets clean air he'll be mighty hard to beat. Can run a big final 400m and mow them down.
Elusive Element - 1pt @ 2.40
Albury R6 No.5 - TOM MELBOURNE (x2 NAP)
He was first up over the 1800m at Flemington and sat just behind a pretty brutal early speed, yet still managed to boot away upon straightening and win comfortably. It was nothing short of an enormous run and the fact he gets to 2000m second-up (winning pattern in the past) tells me he'll be just too good for them again. Wide draw no concern as he'll be pushing forward early and taking a prominent position, could be a genuine Cups contender later in the year.
Tom Melbourne - 2pt @ 2.25
Moonee Valley R1 No.6 - I'M A FLYING STAR
Was a very impressive winner at Sandown over the 1000m three weeks ago when coming from off the speed to reel off some big splits late and monster them (runner-up came out and won well at Sandown this past Wednesday). Speed will be genuinely hot here with some 955m specialists engaged so he'll get every chance to balance up and be hitting the line hard over the top.
I'm a Flying Star - 1pt @ 3.20
Moonee Valley R4 No.6 - MASTER OF ARTS
Was just given a "run" at Cranbourne over the mile two weeks ago, got back on a night where it was basically impossible to make ground and ran through the line fairly as a result. Yes to third-up/2000m and the speed looks ok on paper. Will balance up in the second half of the field but with a tow into the race he can come over the top. Was a winner at 2000m last prep at Caulfield before going on to be lipped out at G3 level in QLD.
Master of Arts - 1pt @ 3.20
Moonee Valley R7 No.1 - IT IS WRITTEN (each-way)
He's screaming out to win a race this bloke, was excellent over the 955m (far too sharp) despite being run off his legs early here three weeks ago, found the line very well and was unlucky not to cross with the winner. Should have almost beaten now G1 winner Holler in the Australia Stakes here mid-January which is enormous form. He's drawn awkwardly but if he can find a spot midfield and peel at the 500m to make his run he'll go very close. Concerned a touch by the S.Arnold booking but we're getting a big price to find out.
It is Written - 0.5pt e/w @ 15.00