Tom Gilmore's best bets for Ballarat and Scone this Tuesday, 22nd March.
Ballarat R2 No.6 - THE WEALD (each-way)
Came back as a gelding fresh at Ballarat over the 1400m and was run off his legs early, did a terrific job to pick up over the final 600m. Copped some interference straightening but still managed to really find the line on a day when they found it tough to make ground. Fitter and gets to the mile which are two major positives, big field should ensure the speeds good and if he can find a spot a touch worse than midfield with a trail into the race, can win!
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The Weald - 0.5pt e/w @ 9.00
Ballarat R4 No.1 - CHUI
Looks a good style of 3yo this, went down narrowly on debut over 1100m at Kilmore last November before going on two weeks later to just miss to Vostok (G3 competitive). Has since had two jumpouts at Flemington, the most recent of which was a quiet spin around but the one prior was smart next to a good one. Gets the right run from the draw and should go very close with natural improvement. Pretty wound up to get the maiden out of the way!
Chui - 1pt @ 3.00
Ballarat R7 No.1 - VALDERRAMA
Like that this fella has been freshened and gets back to 1200m, has run in to some good ones (French Emotion looks a Group-class mare) of late but I dont see that quality here. From the wide draw I expect Oliver to roll forward and look to either find the fence/sit leaders girth. Track has suited those closer to the speed of late so with pattern in his favour and the right ride he'll be hard to beat. Has just missed to Raposo at 1200m in the past!
Valderrama - 1pt @ 4.40
Scone R1 No.1 - BAKSLAP
Was good on debut over the 1100m leading them up before just running out of gas late (beaten by fitter ones). She only went down a length so with that under her belt and a drop back to 900m, I expect her to really fly early, pinch a break on them at the turn and be too tough to run down. Despite not smashing the clock in that race here 11 days ago, this really is a pretty poor race and he should be winning. Fence off possibly only negative?
Bakslap - 1pt @ 2.60
Scone R8 No.7 - NAVAJO CHIEF (each-way)
Think this is a really intriguing race from a map point of view, and with the key rivals getting back/dropping in trip I reckon this fella is a big chance fresh. We haven't seen him at the trials yet but he does go ok first-up (runner-up over 1000m last year), he'll be on-speed and gets in very well at the weights after the claim from McDougall. Can see him "pinching" this with the right ride.
Navajo Chief - 0.5pt e/w @ 4.40