Tom Gilmore's best bets for this Wednesday, April 13th.
Ballarat R1 No.8 - MERCY MAY
Think this filly may very well punch up from the inside draw/with no weight and take plenty of catching. She got a touch out of her ground over 1100m recently at Stony Creek and managed to find the line ok. Not convinced she's a genuine chaser and with no speed on paper it'd be great to see her take up a position this afternoon. That race two weeks ago she was only 1.6 lengths off Nadeems Melody who'd run around at $1.40 in this.
Mercy May - 1pt @ 3.80
Ballarat R3 No.1 - TALES OF WAR (x2 NAP)
Was forced to do a fair bit of work here ten days ago over the 1000m when returning fresh to go down narrowly, they ran decent enough time for the day and with natural improvement/blinkers on he should be too good for this lot. Will push forward from the wide alley and either lead/sit leaders girth before kicking clear at the top of the straight. Dont think the 1000m/rail true suits those looking to make ground so pattern will favour, he could be a nice off-season horse to follow this campaign.
Tales of War - 2pts @ 2.05
Ballarat R5 No.3 - SERENADE
Nice filly, was good enough to run a genuine G1-class galloper in Petits Filous to 3 lengths when returning at Caulfield two weeks ago over the 1100m. Improved second-up last prep so expect her to do so again, blinkers go back on which should see her ping the lids and be handy which is important this afternoon. Finished 3rd at G3 level in the spring over 1200m at Moonee Valley in what proved a very slick race! She should just be too classy.
Serenade - 1pt @ 1.80
Doomben R1 No.6 - ARROGANT BOY
He's rock-hard fit this fella after three runs at 1200m thus far in his prep, has gone down narrowly in his two most recent efforts - he may have found the six furlongs a bit much so pleased to see him drop back to 1100m. Big plus the blinkers go back on and with the rail out 9m/good track pattern will no doubt suit those handy to the speed. Should find the fence and take plenty of catching.
Arrogant Boy - 1pt @ 4.60
Doomben R3 No.1 - RED WAYNE
Thought the gelding was excellent in a $100,000 a month ago here at Doomben behind the very talented Spot The Diff, then went to the Gold Coast two weeks later and was forced to work finding the front. Just gave out late (first time at the 1400m) and was swamped by those with much cosier trips in transit. Fancy he's taken great benefit from that effort and a slight drop to 1350m wont hurt (big yes second go at the trip!). Like the recipe he brings to the table this afternoon.
Red Wayne - 1pt @ 4.40
Warwick Farm R2 No.5 - MONTIGNAC
She was good two weeks ago behind Falkenberg (very nice horse!) over the 1600m, dropped ok but was immediately dragged back to the rear of the field - leader ran along/fav got a cart into the race and meanwhile when McDonald wanted to improve she was pocketed. Basically didnt find clean air until the final 150m and she did find the line well. Fitter for the run at the mile and should find plenty of room from the draw. Expect three-wide/cover and too good winding up over the top!
Montignac - 1pt @ 2.10
Warwick Farm R7 No.6 - MESA
Excellent win fresh three weeks ago at Wyong on a bottomless track (off the back of two nice trials). That was his first hitout since August of last year so you'd have to expect improvement. The wide draw at this point of the meeting wont be an issue, he might find 'A' ground well off the fence. Its easy to forget his 2yo form but he was competitive in very good company. I expect he'll win this on his way to Saturday grade.
Mesa - 1pt @ 2.60