Pakenham R4 No.5 - TANTO BIANCO
Thought he went fairly nicely resuming at Geelong on the pro-ride over 1100m three weeks ago, was only caught late/fitness told and that winner then went on to get within 1.7 lengths of a very smart 2yo at Caulfield last Saturday. He'll take good benefit from that initial hit-out and with the right run in transit (should find the front) he'll offer a kick at the bend and take catching. Improved second-up/to 1200m last prep and fancy he can do the same.
Tanto Bianco - 1pt @ 3.80
Pakenham R5 No.9 - PALAZZO PITTI
If they ride her properly she really shouldn't be a losing a race this poor, was again a bridesmaid two weeks ago at Geelong over the 1200m in a race that actually did rate ok (time was good). Winner looks like she may be above average, they elected to ride with a sit but she never looked like troubling the winner - they gapped the rest. I pray they look to find the front from the wide draw, she's rock-hard fit and can run them off their legs.
Palazzo Pitti - 1pt @ 3.80
Pakenham R6 No.5 - WINSTON LEGACY
3yo taking on the older horses but did like his maiden win at Sale fresh over 1400m, came from near on last at the turn to really show good dash late and savage the line. That was soft and he now comes onto the pro-ride which is some query, but if he takes good benefit (clearly improved to the mile) then he should take some real beating. Speed will be genuine and he'll be the one having a final shot at them, draws to sit closer!
Winston Legacy - 1pt @ 5.50
Pakenham R9 No.16 - THINK ALIKE (x2 NAP)
Made enormous ground with a very sharp final 200m split here ten days ago over the 1400m, he missed by a whisker to a fairly smart metro/midweek class galloper and this really looks no harder (gapped 3rd). That was his first go at the 1400m so takes good benefit from that and with the right run in transit (draws a friendly marble!) he'll be far too good for this lot.
Think Alike - 1pt @ 2.60
Pakenham R10 No.10 - COLOUR DROPS
Talented style of mare who comes down from Sydney and strikes a very winnable race (average bunch!). Her two runs this time in since returning have been even/ok without showing the dash she did on debut earlier this year when winning in slick fashion (good time) at Hawkesbury, fancy first-time Melbourne way of going/onto the pro-ride will suit her (yes to firm surfaces) and she does draw for a soft run box-seating in transit. No excuses today.
Colour Drops - 1pt @ 3.20
Scone R5 No.3 - MOONLIGHT SPY
Made really good ground on two occasions (1200m/1300m) at latest efforts and gave every indication he'd be ready to win when stepping up in trip (enormous making ground v. pattern at Dubbo), gets to a much more suitable mile today (big tick!) and finds a race with genuine enough speed on paper, if pattern allows it (they can usually make ground here) then he'll have a bit too much upside for them.
Moonlight Spy - 1pt @ 1.90