Leg 1 - 2, 4, 6, 9
Leg 2 - 4, 5, 6, 9
Leg 3 - 1, 3, 4, 5
Leg 4 - 4, 5, 6, 12
$100 = 40%
Geelong R1 No.3 - PATS LAD
Two latest efforts at a mile on the pro-ride have late have been good, most recent at Pakenham actually rated ok and winner Lady Effort looks a mid-week/metro performer (would be $1.20 here). He was wide/no-cover throughout on that occasion so under the circumstances the way he stuck on was promising. Think the two solid hit-outs have him ready for a progression to the 1900m and an inside marble will ensure he doesn't spend a penny in transit.
Pats Lad - 1pt @ 5.00
Next Best: Geelong R2 No.8 - THE LUNCH
Nice style of colt who came home with some terrific late splits against the pattern (leader dominated) on debut at Pakenham over 1000m three weeks ago, that race actually rated well enough on the day and the winner has since gone on to run v.nicely in town at Moonee Valley. Reckon he'll certainly position up a pair or two closer from the wide draw and the extra 100m will suit. Strips fitter/has edge on key rival and should take beating.
The Lunch - 1pt @ 2.90
Best Bet: Geelong R6 No.4 - LOST COMMAND
Didn't go a yard resuming on a bog track here on the turf two weeks ago (1200m), rolled to the front/set a good gallop and folded quite badly late. Think getting back on top of the ground with the run under her belt is a winning recipe. 1200m win fresh at Ballarat earlier this year rated enormously, he beat home runner-up Day Of Rest (since city winner) by over 4 lengths. That run would give this lot a lesson. Any time you can rate down and win is a positive.
Lost Command - 1pt @ 3.20
Roughie: Geelong R7 No.5 - GIFT OF MUSIC
Didn't run the mile when progressing from 1300m back in July at Pakenham (keen to forgive), like he's been freshened back to 1200m (won in good style track/trip in June in ok time) and from the inside marble he very well may take closer order. The tempo of six furlongs is much more suitable for him, needs a good early clip in order to produce a slick final 400m late home over the top. He's come up good overs if they motor early!
Gift of Music - 1pt @ 9.50
Wagga R4 No.5 - THE TAR MAN
Reckon he's been going well without winning last couple and keen he maps well to win this on a very heavy deck (3 wins from 7!). Should really find the lead quite comfortably and fancy pattern on a testing surfaces will suit those fit/rock-hard types. He can run them along at a genuine clip and suck the sprint out of key rivals who are resuming and will more than likely be soft/need the run.
The Tar Man - 1pt @ 7.00