Leg 1 - 1, 2, 3, 9, 10, 11
Leg 2 - 4, 7, 11
Leg 3 - 1, 5, 6
Leg 4 - 1, 2, 6, 12
$100 = 40%
Best Bet: Moe R4 No.9 - MANDALAY BAY
He's a really talented galloper this fella, debuted back in April (as market elect) at Sandown over the 1200m in what was a slick affair. He went well but was fairly wayward (since gelded), winner Highland Beat looks top shelf and does appear a live chance in G1 Caulfield Guineas this spring. Like his recent trial at Cranbourne where he went around under a tight hold for B.Melham, who takes the ride today. Think the wide draw for him also suits as it'll give him a chance to balance up, he maps to sit midfield and think with a trouble-free run he'll just be a bit too slick for them late.
Mandalay Bay - 1pt @ 2.30
Moe R5 No.8 - LUCKY BEAU
Debuted nicely at Echuca (1100m) off the back of a smart trial at Mornington. Was a strong-enough maiden (quicker than other 1100m event) he contested and think he certainly showed he'd be winning races. Jumped well/settled off the back of a solid early tempo, hooked 4-5 deep on the bend looking to improve down the centre of the track (against pattern) and didn't get warm until late. His final 100m was strong so think the progression to 1200m today suits. Expect him to roll forward from the wide draw (may even sit leaders girth) and with the run under his belt on a testing surface, be too strong. He has upside!
Lucky Beau - 1pt @ 3.30
Roughie: Moe R7 No.10 - LOVE IS GREAT
Won her maiden in good style at Echuca (beating a handy debutant who we're with in R4) and think she can go on with it now to 1200m, Showed she's more than adept on shifting surfaces and if anything looks better placed at 1200m (strong through the line latest). Gets in nicely relative weights thanks to the 3kg claim from J.Grob and should put herself into the race early from the wide marble. If she can find a backside in the one-one she'll give us a sight at a big price, maiden win rated well enough to come to BM58 and give it a shake!
Love is Great - 1pt @ 13.00
Moe R8 No.7 - COPERNICUS
He was super latest at Bairnsdale a month ago on a bog track, rolled to the front from the wide marble and set a strong gallop in transit. Think the end of 1200m might have just found him out late, so his effort to only be nabbed on the line by New York (since run well in town) had merit. Like the recipe freshened/back to 1100m and he should find the front quite comfortably (other leaders on his outside). Loves it when he can get his toe into the deck and pattern may suit!
Copernicus - 1pt @ 4.60
Kembla Grange R2 No.7 - LOVE ME BABY
Returned to racing two weeks ago as a short-priced fav and went down narrowly at Nowra over the 1100m, was forced to sit three-deep throughout while leader/winner had a fairly soft time of it in front. That horse was rock-hard fit and has since won again, this filly loomed but just ran out of juice in the last 50m. Takes terrific benefit physically and only run on a rain-affected track she bolted in by 4 lengths (clearly superior when she can get her toe in). Second-up/1200m and gets in well relative weights, she ticks all the boxes.
Love Me Baby - 1pt @ 2.80
Next Best: Kembla Grange R6 No.7 - ORIENTAL RUNNER
Thought the debut was good considering he dropped the bit rounding the bend (1100m too slick), he settled nicely three pairs back off a moderate gallop and took some urgings to pick-up. His final 50m was very slick and he responded well to the stick to hit the line with a full head of steam. Clearly improved for the day out and 1300m will suit him down to the ground, finds the PR of the race from gate 3 (can settle a pair closer) and sting-out helps. He has a touch of upside about him.
Oriental Runner - 1pt @ 3.80