Tom Gilmore's best bets for Mornington and Rosehill today.
Mornington R1 No.8 - ROLDANA
Was 1400m to 1900m at Geelong two weeks ago on the pro-ride when going down narrowly, she made good ground against the pattern and if fitness allowed it she probably would have won. Like the 2000m for her now with the run at the trip and no issue wide-draw/D.Oliver sticks. Speed on paper looks genuine enough and expect with the rail out they'll make ground off the fence. She's a mare still on the up this preparation.
Roldana - 1pt @ 3.40
Next Best: Mornington R2 No.13 - SWAMPLAND
Really promising filly this, thought her debut at Moe back in April over the 1000m was exceptional under the circumstances. Settled back to near on last (couldn't go the early speed) but rattled home strongly to suggest she'll make a horse (winner is a city class horse and has since shown that). Time off has seen her mature physically, her jump-out at Caulfield recently was terrific and suggest the 1200m fresh won't be any sort of issue. Will settle closer and should find the PR from the good marble, she's smart.
Swampland - 1pt @ 3.00
Mornington R6 No.5 - GIBBON
Didn't go a yard on the poly-track at Pakenham two weeks ago over the 1100m, prepared to totally forgive that and assess on two fresh runs prior. Returned to racing at Sandown over the 1000m and found them a bit slick (was only 4 lengths off G1-class Hellbent), then went to 1200m at Cranbourne and settled in an impossible position before making enormous ground against the pattern (on-pacers dominant) to hit the line with authority. Suggest he strikes suitable conditions today, if he settles midfield he'll be in striking distance late.
Gibbon - 1pt @ 4.00
Best Bet: Mornington R7 No.1 - RISQUE BUSINESS
Mare was well backed to win here first-up three weeks ago and only went down narrowly, had the one official trial prior and was coming off a 10 month break so thought the effort was excellent (clearly had improvement). Third horse out of the race went to Morphettville (Saturday grade) and went down narrowly so fancy theres merit to the form (time was quite slick!). Fitter now and should get the absolute PR box-seating from gate 2, she's a city class horse.
Risque Business - 1pt @ 2.50
Rosehill R1 No.4 - IN TIMES OF WAR
Liked the debut at Canterbury a month ago from this filly, she did some work early to sit OSL and managed to offer a strong kick rounding the bend only to be nabbed late by a smart one (who wasn't disgraced second-up at G2 level). That run does her the world of good and think the fence will be the place to be here (pattern) this afternoon. Takes good benefit out of that run fresh and like they stick at the 1100m, she'll again be in the leading pair and should be winning.
In Times of War - 1pt @ 4.60
Rosehill R2 No.6 - NICCOLANCE
Really good colt this, his 2yo form was nothing short of top-shelf with a 2.5 length defeat to Astern (G1 winner since/super colt!) and a 2.8 length demise to Capitalist (Golden Slipper winner) as clear standouts on his resume'. Now that is ENORMOUS form for a maiden at Newcastle on a Friday. Back to todays return, he's trialled up in very impressive fashion - latest hit-out at Rosehill (30/8 1030m) was sharp, not knocked about but still managed to run through the line with a head of steam. Horse who needs firmer going (should get that today) and from the wide draw expect him to take closer order, should have something on these.
NIccolance - 1pt @ 3.20