Tom Gilmore's best bets for Cranbourne and Hawkesbury today.
Next Best: Cranbourne R1 No.3 - NATCH
Really like the win at Mornington two weeks ago off what was a goo early tempo, he ran through the line like a horse that'd clearly enjoy a step-up in trip which he finds today. Don't mind the fact in the small field he draws well, could expect him to take closer order mid-race and if he's within striking distance at the 400m he can reel off a strong late split to come home over the top of them.
NATCH - 1pt @ 3.60
Cranbourne R3 No.13 - SO POYSED
Another who comes out of that strong Mornington race that Natch did two weeks ago, this time this fella was terrific making enormous ground from last at the 400m. Closing splits were outstanding and he was only first-up so assume theres plenty of improvement in him physically. Looks like 1400m will suit him down to the ground and this inside draw should see him be much handier in running. Stable have an opinion of this horse, second-up/debut prep he wasn't disgraced in $85,000 race at Randwick
SO POYSED - 1pt @ 2.90
Cranbourne R5 No.5 - MODEL DRAGON
She looks like a promising mare this, makes her return to the races for the first-time since May earlier this year after winning both starts in maiden prep, won well fresh over the 1200m but the made significant improvement progressing to a mile at Morphettville where she really looked a class above. Thought her trial recently 19/9 at Balaklava was ok on a very shifty/heavy surface, clearly will be improved on top of the ground and expect she'll go close fresh!
MODEL DRAGON - 1pt @ 2.15
Cranbourne R7 No.13 - CONCUBINE
Think she was very good fresh at Geelong when getting her toe into the surface two weeks ago, she made terrific ground v. the pattern of the day/race (1st/2nd were 1-2 at the turn), interesting to note the runner-up out of that has since come out and won by 5 lengths eased down since - so fancy the form/ratings are holding up ok. This mare improved significantly when getting to the mile in her first prep where she went super in Stakes company. Think she gets the PR on the map and will offer a sight at a nice price.
CONCUBINE - 1pt @ 5.00
Best Roughie: Cranbourne R8 No.4 - BRING SOMETHING
He's been set for this, no doubt about it. Trialled up twice here at Cranbourne in preparation for his return to racing at Caulfield two weeks ago over the 1700m, he made good late ground/worst part of the track in what was a slick affair. Got within 2.7 lengths of Royal Rapture (since ran super G1 Toorak Handicap!). Drops 2.5kgs at the weights/improves to 2000m and draws for a beautiful trip mid-race.
BRING SOMETHING - 1pt @ 7.50
Cranbourne R9 No.5 - IT IS WRITTEN
Interesting they turn him around on a 10 day back-up after a terrific run first-up at Moonee Valley over a very unsuitable 955m, he made good ground off the fence (winner shot through on the inside) but the way he ran through the line was excellent (final 400m good). 1000m is more suitable and despite the fact the inside draw means he'll need luck, if he finds a split fancy he'll be motoring late. Should have won this race last year and can atone here! Second-up earlier this year went enormous in G2 Australia Stakes.
IT IS WRITTEN - 1pt @ 7.50
Hawkesbury R1 No.1 - SAMADOUBT
Fitness just told late when resuming two weeks ago at Kembla Grange, he led them up/worked and was only nabbed on the line. Clearly strips fitter for the run and like they stick at the 1000m. He'll roll to the front from the inside draw and really just be too slick for them.
horse-racing/hawkesbury/race-1-australian-rotary-health-maiden-handicap/winner - 1pt @ 2.00
Best Bet: Hawkesbury R6 No.8 - ROMNEYS CHOICE
Won well here fresh a month ago over the 1300m before being ridden upside-down when second-up to 1500m at Rosehill, she was forced to make a sustained run from the tail (suited on-pacers) so fancy the fact she got within two lengths of the winner has merit. Third-up expect her to find her top physically and from the favourable marble she'll be much handier in running today, could box-seat/find PR and really be the map horse to win it.
ROMNEYS CHOICE - 1pt @ 4.60