The Big Marn fancies a few outsiders in this week's NRL action!
BIG MARN’S MULTI:
DRAGONS straight out
BRISBANE V CANTERBURY Thursday night, Suncorp Stadium
This is the litmus test for the Broncos, at home it gives them the advantage although the away form of the Bulldogs is good. Whilst I lean to the Broncos to actually win the game, the bet is the Bulldogs with the +4 start ($1.94 UNIBET). The Dogs so often look far from premiership material, but they keep on winning. I expect them to stay right in this game for a long time.
For First Try Scorer – am looking to Moses MBye ($26 Ladbrokes) to get the Bulldogs off to a good start, he is always near the ball and with the big Bulldog forwards carting it up into the Broncos quarter, he is a good chance to score first at decent odds.
PENRITH V WESTS TIGERS Friday night, Pepper Stadium
Whilst it is hard not to tip the Panthers, from a betting perspective I believe the bet is Wests Tigers plus the start ($1.91 Sportsbet) which is a whopping 9.5 points. That’s too big, even with Tedesco out. A cold Friday night out at the foot of the mountains is conducive to a tight affair, and this looks a great bet.
Last week Matt Moylan ($15 Bet365) was simply outstanding and we are going to roll with him to be the First Try Scorer in this game. He will be instrumental in the Panthers push for the Top 8 so we expect him to figure prominently in this match.
NEWCASTLE V GOLD COAST Saturday afternoon, Hunter Stadium
For the 3rd game in a row this weekend I am going to tip the short-priced favourites to win the game, but on the punt I am going to back the outsider with the start. The Knights get 13.5 ($1.91 Sportsbet) and I have a feeling the Gold Coast might drop their intensity here and let the Knights stay within 2 converted tries. The Titans are a work in progress and games which look locks to win can often see sides fumble around and make heavy weather of it. Ok the Knights have lost 15 in a row, and this is purely a speculator but if they can replicate the first half vs Penrith and the whole match effort vs the Storm, then the start looks good.
The big Kiwi Konrad Hurrell ($11 Bet365) has made a decent impression since landing in QLD from the Warriors and he is play good football. Let’s cheer him on to be the First Try Scorer at Hunter Stadium.
MANLY V MELBOURNE Brookvale Oval, Saturday afternoon
The Storm might not be going as well as they would like for this stage of the year after being rolled by an outstanding Raiders outfit last week. I do expect them to bounce and bounce well under Craig Bellamy, and I believe they will beat Manly easily. I am going to back the Storm minus the 8.5 line ($1.91 Sportsbet) as they must get back on track in their run towards the semis. Manly have nothing to play for, and as such are vulnerable.
It is hard to look past the Melbourne fliers for First Try Scorer, he has been in somewhat of a drought, but I am having a few shekels on Vunivalu ($7 Bet365) to cross first in the game.
NORTH QUEENSLAND V NEW ZEALAND 1300 Smiles Stadium, Saturday night
Same thing as three previous matches this round – I expect the Cowboys to win, but I have to take the Warriors at the +12 line ($2 Bet365). If you erase their woeful effort at home against the Bunnies (and there isn’t a side like the Warriors who can chuck in such a poor effort out of the blue) with quite a lot at stake here, they need to match it with the Cowboys.
We are setting a trend for backing big, tough Kiwi-bred backs to score First Try and there is no point bucking this trend. Manu Vatuvei ($15 Bet365) to score first in Townsville. You could also look at a sneaky HT / FT double Warriors into Cowboys ($8 UNIBET) which is a good price for a speccy.
CANBERRA V PARRAMATTA Sunday afternoon, GIO Stadium
Also working well with my theory about afternoon games with free scoring sides, the Overs in Total Points ($1.91 Sportbet) looks a decent enough bet on top of the start, so have a piece of that too.
For a 3rd investment in this match, let’s take some great odds about the Eels / Raiders HT-FT Double ($8 Centrebet) as I expect the Eels to start well, with Bevan French ($12 LuxBet) a very good chance to kick-start the day perfectly for the Eels by dotting down first.
SYDNEY ROOSTERS V ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA Sunday afternoon, Allianz Stadium
I do think the market has got this one wrong and for mine it is a toss-of-the-coin game. Therefore, I simply have to be on the Dragons ($2.85 UNIBET) at the chunky price. Not only that, I think that the Dragons will come out of the blocks with plenty of confidence after dusting their bitter rivals last week, so expect Euan Aitken ($15 Bet365) to be a very live chance to score the First Try, as the Dragons go about leading from start to finish. Have something on the Dragons-Dragons HT/FT Double ($4.20 UNIBET).
SOUTHS V CRONULLA Monday night, ANZ Stadium
Damien Cook has given the bunnies some spark around dummy-half and Inglis is starting to fire a motor that has stuttered in club football this season. It is too hard to ignore the Bunnies form of the last week or so, and it is also too hard to ignore the slump the Sharks find themselves in. We love a trend and yet again I believe the favourites will win off the bat, but I am all over the Bunnies with the start of 7.5 ($1.91 Sportsbet). Its looks the bet here.
After being demoted to the mighty North Sydney Bears NSW Cup side where he bagged a treble, Joe Burgess ($14 Sportsbet) is back in First Grade and has been scoring tries for fun. We are on him to continue that rich vein of form and get across the chalk first on Monday.