Arsenal v Stoke
Charlie Adam and Ibrahim Afellay are suspended for Stoke while Ryan Shawcross remains their most significant absentee. Stoke are yet to find much form and even a stuttering Arsenal should be too good having won all their home meetings with Stoke since 1981. The Gunners have won 13 of 16 home games against middle-third finishers in the past two seasons, with 10 wins by more than one goal, while Stoke have lost 10 of 12 trips to top-six sides. The 5/6 on the -1.5 Asian Handicap is a bit skinny for us but worth taking if it drifts towards evens, and we prefer the Draw/Arsenal HT/FT double as Stoke have managed to reach half-time level in 10 of their last 15 away games.
Draw/Arsenal (HT/FT) - 1pt @ 13/4
Crystal Palace v Man City
The top of the table clash should be an entertaining game with Palace looking to be the first team to score against City this season. Alan Pardew has assembled an exciting team capable of scoring against anyone and both teams found the net in five of Palace’s six matches against top-six finishers last term after Pardew took over, as has been the case in all four of their games this term. Man City have won 10 in a row and they’ve scored in 20 of 21 away matches since the start of last season. Both teams to score looks the safe bet here but 12 of Palace’s last 14 wins have been with both teams scoring and that includes five 2-1 scores, including in this fixture last season – that’s a tempting 18/1 correct score.
Both Teams To Score - 1pt @ 7/10
Norwich v Bournemouth
All three promoted sides were free-scoring in nature last season – collectively they scored 277 goals which was more than 50 goals above the average for the three promoted sides from the previous nine seasons. Both sides have failed to keep a clean sheet this term and we see that continuing here. Both teams have scored in 60% of the 30 all-promoted clashes since 2010/11 and last season both to score settled in the first half in both meetings between these teams.
Both teams to score Yes at 8/11
Both Teams To Score - 1pt @ 10/13
Watford v Swansea
With so many changes to their squad over the summer Watford were always likely to be the hardest of the new boys to predict and so far their two home games are yet to produce a goal. Another low scoring encounter could be on the cards here, with all nine of Swansea’s nine trips to promoted teams since 2012/13 having fewer than three goals, as have eight of their last nine trips to bottom-half sides. Swansea have won four and lost three of their last nine trips to bottom-half teams making their price as narrow favourites look correct but three of their wins were 1-0 so the 8/1 on the correct score looks better value.
Under 2.5 Goals - 1pt @ 3/4
West Brom v Southampton
The past four meetings between these teams have seen a grand total of three goals and another tight affair looks on the cards. Nine of West Brom’s 21 matches since Tony Pulis took over have had fewer than two goals, with four finishing goalless. Southampton have lost six of their 10 trips to bottom-half teams since the start of last season with four 1-0 losses as eight of the matches had fewer than three goals and six had fewer than two. Both teams chose to bolster their defences on deadline day, with Jonny Evans joining the Baggies and Virgil van Dijk moving to the Saints and we expect defences to be on top here, so the half-time draw, HT 0-0, and the under-goals markets all appeal.
Under 1.5 Goals - 1pt @ 2/1