Many would have expected West Ham to win two of their first four games, just not those two. After beating Liverpool they had a good transfer deadline day, with Nikica Jelavic and Victor Moses two players who could play a significant part.
The Hammers have certainly been more attacking than might have been expected under Slaven Bilic and their signings suggest that will continue. They’ve scored in 18 of their last 20 home games, as only Chelsea and Villa have kept clean sheets here, with half those matches having at least three goals.
Newcastle frustrated Arsenal after Aleksandar Mitrovic went for an early shower and they looked happy to try and limit the damage from then on so it’s not a great guide for how they might play here. They’ve scored only once in their last eight away matches but the players at their disposal suggest they should be able to offer a greater threat than that. Half of their last 20 away games have had at least three goals and that increases to six of nine when they’ve scored. Given only Burnley, Sunderland and Hull have failed to score in West Ham’s last 12 home games we give Newcastle a great chance of improving on their recent dreadful scoring record on the road.
We’ve fancied West Ham to win both their previous home games this season, at similar prices to this, but they’ve let us down so far. We expect Newcastle to finish above Leicester and Bournemouth, who’ve both won here, so the Hammers price is not one that holds too much appeal this time. Newcastle’s poor start has been partly down to having played four teams that finished in the top eight last season so it’s probably too early to read much into their form. They lost only three of nine away matches when scoring last term and as we fancy them to find the net here we’d make West Ham closer to 6/4 than their current price of 5/4. Instead the Newcastle-Draw Double Chance at 5/7 looks a better bet with all three outcomes possible.
In terms of a long shot it’s worth noting that six of West Ham’s last seven home defeats have been despite scoring and Newcastle can be backed to win with both teams scoring at 11/2.
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