Sydney have stalled somewhat in recent weeks, with three 0-0’s in their last four.
After winning three of their opening four games this season, Sydney have stalled somewhat in recent weeks, with three 0-0’s in their last four, though they’ve still lost just once this season and that was against the Victory. Meanwhile, Newcastle are up in 5th after finishing bottom last season, though they themselves have not won in four despite two games against the bottom three.
These two sides have comfortably seen the fewest goals in their matches so far this season and all eight of Sydney’s games have been level at half-time, as have seven of The Jets’ matches. Sydney have won just once at home this season, a 1-0 win over Western Sydney, and that was one of five home games in their last seven that saw fewer than two goals. Sydney reached the Grand Final last season but it was on the back of a superb away record and actually despite some rather disappointing home stats. They’ve won just three of their last 15 home matches and have failed to score in eight of the matches, with nine having fewer than three goals. That record does improve against bottom-half teams – and we would expect the Jets to slip back from their current 5th place – but it still isn’t enough for us to consider them at their current short price.
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Newcastle managed just three wins in the entirety of last season, a tally they’ve already matched this term, with the most impressive of these wins coming against the Victory. However, that win was slightly fortunate as Victory dominated the game and though they followed that with another win in the next game their opponents, Melbourne City, will not want to be reminded how they squandered a two-goal lead. So in another season they could easily have found themselves battling it out with the current bottom three and they still look outsiders to make the play-offs at the end of the season.
However, they’ve already equalled their clean sheets tally from last season and have conceded more than once in just two of their eight games this season. On the road they’re W2-D1-L0 this season, though all of those sides are currently in the bottom-half and they are not a significantly better side than last term.
Sydney have won six of their last seven meetings with the Jets, home and away since 2013/14, with Newcastle only finding the net in one of those matches and six also having fewer than three. This, together with these sides’ impressive defences but lack of goals this season means that Under 2.5 goals and both teams not to score appeal, with Under 1.5 also worth a punt.