Adelaide’s price looks poor value and we’re backing Perth to avoid defeat here.
This bottom of the table clash sees winless Adelaide host Perth, who’s only victory this season came at home to Adelaide themselves. Perth in ninth are one point better off than their hosts and also have a game in hand, meaning that a defeat here would really see Adelaide drift away from the rest of the table. It’s been a sharp fall from grace for both these sides, with Adelaide finishing fourth last season, whilst Perth would have been third were if not for their salary cap violation, the penalty for which is having a significant effect on them this season.
Adelaide scored a late goal at the Victory last weekend to reduce the margin of victory to just one goal, though in truth the home side were in cruise control after going two goals up within the opening half hour. However, Adelaide did pick up a draw against the Champions in their opening game of the season at home and home draws against Western Sydney and the Jets represents decent form, with their only home loss this season coming against Melbourne City, one of only four home defeats since the start of last season.
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Perth were hammered 5-1 at City last weekend, though they did manage to score their only goal in their last four games. However, that was their only defeat by more than one goal this season, despite the fact they’ve travelled to Brisbane and Western Sydney. The three aforementioned losses, together with a defeat at Central Coast in their opening game of the season means that Perth have lost all four of their road games this season, this after losing just once away last season. They haven’t been helped by injuries, with defenders Djulbic and Risdon both out, while right-back Aryn Williams is suspended following his late red card against City.
Adelaide have won three of five unbeaten home games against Perth, though both teams scored in four of these matches. However these are two completely different sides this season and we couldn’t trust Adelaide at 8/11, particularly since they’re yet to win this campaign. Since 2010/11 there have been 59 clashes between two teams both in the bottom three and the home side has won just 34% (W20-D22-L17) making Adelaide’s price look poor value and we’re backing Perth also to avoid defeat here.