Four of Victory’s five at home games had at least three goals, as have four of Brisbane’s last six.
Victory mounted a remarkable comeback to pick up a point with a 92nd minute equaliser at the Mariners last Friday, having been 3-0 down at half-time and though that’ll feel like a win, in truth this Victory side looks a shadow of the one that won the league last season, with it being unthinkable for that team to be 3-0 down at a bottom of the league side. This season’s leaders, Brisbane, were held to a 0-0 draw at Wellington in a game they dominated in terms of possession and shots on target, though the fact the Wanderers lost at Melbourne City would have softened the blow of not coming away with the three points.
Six of Victory’s last seven games have been on the road and they’ll be grateful to return to Melbourne as they’re unbeaten at home this season, having won four of their five games. Indeed, their home record since the start of last season reads W13-D3-L3, though they only managed clean sheets in five of these games and just one this season. As a result, 13 of these 19 matches saw at least three goals, including four of five this season. Their record when hosting top-four sides in this time is W3-D2-L1, including a 3-2 win over City this season, one of three of these games that saw at least four goals, with both teams scoring in five of these games.
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That draw at Wellington ended a run of four straight wins for Brisbane but they’ve still only lost twice all season, at the Wanderers and Phoenix, and their record at top-four sides since the start of last season is a decent W3-D2-L4. Each of those defeats were by just a single goal as they scored in seven of these games and five saw at least four goals.
Victory won all three of their meetings with Brisbane last season but as we said earlier the Champions don’t look worthy of that title at the moment, particularly with skipper Carl Valeri still missing, and so we’d be against them at around evens in this match. But the best bet looks to be in the goals market ,as four of Victory’s five at home had at least three goals, as have four of Brisbane’s last six. Over 3.5 Goals is also worth a punt given these sides’ record in clashes with top-four teams.