Eight of the Jets’ last nine matches have seen fewer than three goals.
The Jets’ 2-0 defeat at Sydney last weekend means that they’ve now failed to score in their last six, losing five of these games as they’ve steadily slipped down the table to eighth after a decent start to the season that saw them in the top half after six games.
Wellington, meanwhile, picked up a point at home to league leaders Brisbane, but are winless in their last five and could do with three points here as they look to move up into the top half themselves. Despite the fact that they’ve only managed nine goals in their 14 matches this season, Newcastle have been reasonably good defensively and as a result 10 of their games have seen fewer than three goals with six seeing fewer than two strikes. The first half has been goalless in seven of their eight home games this season and they’ve had a W1-D3-L4 record, with only one of those defeats by more than one goal. Their record when hosting middle-third sides since the start of last season reads W1-D1-L6, but they only trailed at half-time in two of these games and just four of their 21 home games overall since the start of last season.
Like the Jets, the Phoenix haven’t exactly been full of goals recently as they’ve managed just five in their last seven and these two are the lowest scoring sides in the division. Three of Wellington’s four wins this season have come at home and their away record is W1-D2-L5 with that win coming in their opening away game of the season and a 3-1 defeat at bottom of the league Mariners in their last away game is a cause for concern. Indeed, since that win over Perth, the Phoenix have scored just four goals on the road.
Wellington have won this fixture three of four times since 2012/13 but their poor away form puts us off backing them here and instead we’re going to focus on the goals markets. Eight of the Jets’ last nine matches have seen fewer than three goals while the Phoenix have managed just four in their last seven on the road and so we’re backing this to be a low-scoring one.