Victory’s last three home matches have had fewer than three goals.
Victory conceded a late goal when hosting Adelaide on Friday night and as a result suffered their first home defeat since they were shocked by the Jets in April of last year. They still remain in touch with the leaders but they’ll need to get back to winning ways soon if they’re to stay in the title race. Sydney once again find themselves a place below Victory after their 1-1 against the Wanderers last weekend, but unlike last season when they were 1st and 2nd, this time they’re 5th and 6th heading into this week.
Victory have now only managed three wins in their last 13 games and the Champions are out to 11.0 to retain their title, the biggest price they’ve been all season. Whilst their struggles have largely been on the road the defeat at home to Adelaide, their first loss at AAMI Park this season, will be a real concern. Their home record this term is W6-D2-L1 as they’ve led at the break in seven of these matches though only managed three clean sheets. When hosting sides between 4th and 7th since the start of last season their record is W7-D1-L1, including wins over Sydney themselves and City this term along with a draw against Perth.
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Sydney are similarly struggling at the moment having lost three of five winless matches going into this fixture but they’ve had a tough run of games as four of their last six have been against current top-three teams. Their away record this season is W3-D4-L2 though they’ve only won one of their last seven on the road as their defeats have come at Adelaide and Victory themselves, this after having an outstanding W10-D4-L0 away record last term. They’ve been level at the break in seven of their nine road matches this season and have managed just two clean sheets, both of which came in their opening three away games of the season.
Victory’s last three home matches have had fewer than three goals, whilst Sydney haven’t conceded more than twice on the road this season and only scored more than twice at the struggling Mainers. It took until the 90th minute for the deadlock to be broken when Victory hosted Adelaide and it was goalless until the 79th minute when the Champions took the lead via an own goal in their last home game against Sydney a few weeks ago. As a result we’re backing this to be a tight affair between two out of form sides who might be suffering the affects of midweek Champions League games.