Melbourne City v Adelaide United

City’s run of four straight wins was brought to an end at Perth last weekend as they went 3-0 down in the space of 16 minutes in the second half, before snatching a couple of late consolation goals. That result means they sit in 4th heading into the final gameweek, three points behind Brisbane and two behind Adelaide, who continued their excellent form as they won at Sydney. They’ll look to make it three wins a row at the end of the regular season to maintain their top-two position ahead of the Finals.

Having kept three clean sheets in four games heading into the Perth match, City’s defensive frailties from earlier in the season were exposed as they’ve now conceded 42 goals (1.6 gpg), more than anyone else outside the bottom two. The fact that they are comfortably the division’s top scorers with 63 strikes (2.4 gpg) has made up for that to some extent and 35 of those goals have come at home, where they’ve had a W9-D2-L2 record. Indeed, those two defeats came fairly early on in the season and City have since won eight of 10 unbeaten games at home, including each of their last four. John van't Schip’s side have scored at least three times in six of their last seven at home and their record when hosting top-three sides is W2-D0-L1 with that defeat coming against the Wanderers early on in the season but they’ve since gained revenge for that and have also beaten Brisbane.

Adelaide’s 2-0 win at Sydney means they’ve now conceded just three goals in their last seven and their record since they suffered five defeats in their opening eight games is W13-D4-L1. Their road record during that period is W6-D3-L0, with six of those wins coming in their last seven away matches and they’ve also kept a clean sheet in their last four on the road. When travelling to top-four sides they’re W1-D2-L1 with that defeat coming against Brisbane early on in the season and Adelaide since exacted revenge with an impressive 4-1 win.

Indeed, as well as winning at Brisbane, Adelaide also won 3-1 at Perth in their away game prior to that and this represents extremely strong form. Brisbane’s home record is the best in the division at W11-D2-L1 whilst the defeat against Adelaide was Perth’s only loss in their last 12 at home. Adelaide are also the only team to win at Victory this season and with that in mind, City look a little short to us at 2.25, despite their strong home form, and as a result we’re siding with the visitors in this one.

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Adelaide United 0 - 1pt @ 2.36