Melbourne Victory v Brisbane Roar

Victory followed their impressive 2-0 win over the Wanderers with a comfortable 4-1 win at Wellington last weekend to ensure their participation in the Finals. They currently occupy 6th spot, three points behind Perth in 5th and four goals behind them on goal difference. Brisbane head into the final week at the top of the table, but their lead is a narrow one and their goal difference is some way off the likes of Adelaide and City, so they’ll look to pick up at least a point here to secure an all-important top-two finish.

Victory’s title defence has been somewhat underwhelming as they’ve struggled particularly on the road, where they’ve had a W4-D3-L7 record. At home, however, they’ve picked up from where they left off last term as they’re W7-D4-L1, though the win against the Wanderers was their first in five home games. When hosting top-four teams since the start of last term, Kevin Muscat’s side are W5-D3-L2 with four of those wins coming this season as they’ve beaten each of the top-four in City, Adelaide, Brisbane and the Wanderers.

Brisbane’s win at the Jets on Sunday was their fourth in five games but it’s important to note that each of these four wins came at home as they’ve taken advantage of that schedule to propel themselves up the table in the last few weeks of the season. Indeed, 11 of their wins this season have come at the Suncorp Stadium as their away record is W3-D3-L6 with four of those defeats coming in their last five road games, in admittedly tough fixtures against City, Adelaide, Perth and Victory. Indeed, with the exception of win at the Wanderers on the opening day of the season, Brisbane have since lost all five of their trips to top-six sides, conceding at least three times in four of these games and trailing at the break in three.

Victory had to make roughly an 11,000 mile round trip to South Korea and the Suwon Bluewings on Wednesday and since there is little difference between finishing 5th and 6th that has been their priority this week. However, that’s certainly factored into Brisbane’s price at 2.4 and instead the best bet in this one looks to be backing Under 2.5 goals. Victory’s last six at home all had fewer than three strikes as they only scored more than once in one of these games, but having conceded more than once themselves at home since their opening home game of the season. Brisbane, meanwhile, have only managed to score 10 goals in their last 10 on the road and with Victory’s top scorer this season, Berisha, suspended for this one, goals could be hard to come by.

Recommendation: Under 2.5 Goals at 2.5

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Under 2.5 Goals - 1pt @ 2.50