Brendan Fevola gives us his best bets for Round 15's fixtures.
Gold Coast v St Kilda
Everything points to a Saints win on Saturday afternoon given they’re in red hot form and play a team who’ve lost ten on the bounce. However, I’m going against the grain and backing the Suns to finally give their fans something to smile about!
Yes, St Kilda are killing it at the moment, but I have real concerns for them when they travel interstate. It's too late for the Suns, but they’re starting to get a few guns back in their match-day squad and have been close to a win on more than one occasion in recent weeks. Gary Ablett is finding the form which made him the pre-season favourite for the Brownlow, and with Tom Lynch and Aaron Hall also playing good footy they’ve got enough to trouble any team, especially the Saints.
A lot of people will disagree with me, but the Suns are good value today. Yes, the Saints are up and about but are they really that good? If you looked at the venue and these two line-ups at the start of the season you’d be all over Gold Coast. Get on them to win at $1.97.
As stated, Gary Ablett is starting to look like his old self again, and it seems that one of the corporates has taken note, but another hasn’t. I’m shocked you can still load-up on him to have over 30+ disposals at $1.8.
Gold Coast Suns - 1pt @ 1.97
Gary Ablett to have 30+ Disposals - 1pt @ 1.8
Carlton v Collingwood
The two great rivals shape up at the MCG in what could be a classic. Carlton currently have the bragging rights, but all could change as they only sit one game above their cross-town rivals. My boys have shocked everyone this season, and are still with a chance of reaching the finals. That said, you’d also be foolish to rule out the Magpies mounting a finals charge.
Both teams come off the back of contrasting weeks; Collingwood got the better off Freo last Friday night, whilst Carlton were largely disappointing against GWS. The Blues are massively over-priced for this Saturday night clash so back them with insurance, and get on at the line (+9.5, $1.98).
As you all know, I’m a huge fan of Cripps, and tonight I’m chasing a bit of value by backing him to have 30+ disposals, doubled with Travis Cloke to win back the fans and kick three or more at $8.5.
Carlton +9.5 - 1pt @ 1.98
Sydney Swans v Western Bulldogs
This game last year was an absolute belter. The Bulldogs came out on top that time, but I very much doubt it will be the same story this year.
It could be a struggle for the forwards on Saturday as the best two defences of the season face-up. Chances will be few and far between, meaning the game will be won by the forwards’ conversion ratio. In this scenario it’s very hard not to side with the Swans, as they have an in-form Buddy Franklin.
Sydney have got a superior record against the Doggies in recent years, and that’s another reason why I’m siding with them to take the points home. Get on them at the line (-13.5, $1.92).
It could turn into a midfield scrap, another area which the Swans dominate, and if this is the case then Hannebery at $1.56 to have over 30+ disposals is the bet.
Sydeny Swans -13.5 - 1pt @ 1.92
Hanneberry to have 30 or more Disposals - 1pt @ 1.56
Melbourne v Adelaide
Only one game on Sunday to feed oud the footy addiction but, even though the odds don’t suggest it, this could be a very tight game.
The Crows may have won five in a row, but the Demons could be a very tricky outfit. Melbourne’s form has been very inconsistent of late; they won easily against Collingwood but have lost three of their last four, albeit against top quality teams.
The Demons can match-up with Adelaide in the middle but, although they’ve got Jesse Hogan, the Crows’ forwards are a different class. Walker, Betts, Jenkins and Lynch will get the job done for Adelaide, so get on them to win at $1.3.
My old pal Eddie Betts is having another vintage season and he’ll get plenty of chances to kick at goal at the G. He’s my bet to kick 4+ at $3.4.
Adelaide - 1pt @ 1.3
Eddie Betts to score 4 or more - 1pt @ 3.4