Brisbane Roar v Perth Glory

Brisbane started last season as defending champions but the departure of key striker Besart Berisha to Victory seemed to leave a massive hole and a campaign full of inconsistency followed. They will expect to rebound this season and have placed former Socceroos star John Aloisi in charge. Perth had a turbulent campaign as they officially came seventh but that was a result of a salary cap violation after they had actually finished level with Sydney (but behind on goal difference). As a result of that controversy they’ve lost a number of their stars and that is reflected in their current position of ninth, though they have played one game fewer than most of the league, while the Roar have started off strongly and trail leaders Sydney by just a point.

No side had more games that saw at least four goals last season than Brisbane’s 10, as goals were being scored and conceded with almost equal regularity. Their final 18 games averaged 3.56 gpg and both teams scored in eight of their final 10. In Aloisi’s spell in charge of Melbourne Heart in 2012/13 and 2013/14 the 19 home games he managed averaged 3.06 gpg and the trend looks to have continued this season as both of the Roar’s home games had more than two goals. They managed just four home wins last season but have won both their home games this campaign – admittedly against struggling Adelaide and Central Coast – and also led at half-time in both these matches.

Perth’s away matches last season averaged just 2.08 goals per game with 11 of the 13 seeing exactly 2-3 goals as they proved very difficult to break down, losing just once on the road and drawing six times. This term it looks to be a different story as they’ve lost both their away games thus far, against last season’s eighth and ninth Central Coast and Western Sydney, both of whom are also in the bottom half of the table at this early stage of the season. Glory lost the FFA Cup Final last weekend as they were beaten by a ten-man Victory and now that they no longer have the distraction of the cup they’ll hope that their league form will improve.

Four of Brisbane’s five matches this season have had more than two goals, as have three of Perth’s four and with that in mind Over 2.5 goals looks a solid bet here at 3/4, particularly considering Brisbane’s strong overall trend for goals at home. Five of Brisbane’s six home wins since the start of last season saw more than two goals, as have six of Perth’s eight defeats since the start of last season and as a result of Brisbane’s strong form and Perth’s struggles following the loss of a number of important players, backing Brisbane to win a high scoring affair looks the best way to approach this one.

Brisbane to Win and Over 2.5 Goals - 1pt @ 8/5