Brisbane Roar v Melbourne City - Friday 20:00, Fox Sports 4

Table-toppers Brisbane have won four of their opening six games this season, keeping a clean sheet in their last three as they seem to be well on the way to getting over the disappointment of last season and returning to the level they showed in their title winning 2013/14 season. They host a struggling City who were hammered 3-0 at home to Western Sydney last week and as a result find themselves down in seventh.

A large reason for the Roar’s struggles last season was their poor home record that saw them lose seven of their 13 matches, but they look to have rectified that this term, winning all three of their home games and conceding just once. The last two of these home wins have come over Perth and Adelaide, who were 3rd and 4th respectively last season (ignoring Perth’s points penalty) but are struggling somewhat in the early stages of this campaign. Bowles and Broich are injury concerns after the win over Perth with DeVere and Solorzano definitely out for this game.

City’s away form this term is a mixed W1-D1-L1 and if we go back to the start of last season it reads W4-D4-L9. Both teams have scored in their last six on the road with four of these having more than three goals and if we assume that Brisbane are closer to the 2013/14 side than the one that finished 7th last season then City’s away record to sides that finished in the top half last season was W1-D2-L5 but they did find the net in six of these matches. However, this season they look to have started better on the road as they drew at last season’s runners-up and current 2nd Sydney, were valiant 3-2 losers at last season’s champions Victory, and beat last season’s fourth Adelaide 4-2 in their last away game.

Though the Roar are top of the division, they’ve had a relatively easy fixture list and so we’ll lave their price of 2.1 alone for now, particularly with City winning all three meetings last season. City are hard team to predict so far but they are playing with a lot more flair than last season and though they failed to score last week that was without star playmaker Aaron Mooy and he returns to the team here from international duty. Defensively City have conceded a worrying 13 goals already this season and they also let in seven in their final two matches last term, but they have scored in seven of those matches and if you are going to back the Roar they are 3.75 to win with both teams scoring. However, we prefer the over-goals, with four of City’s last five away matches having at least four goals.

Recommended Bet: Over 3.5 Goals - 1pt @ 3.0