Mildura R2 No.4 - LIONEL LEFT ME
Average race this but this fillies debut at Murray Bridge over 1200m was quite good, made solid ground on the winner (who had been city competitive) on a day when they didnt run on whatsoever. She strips fitter and 1400m will suit her down to the ground, can position up a pair or two closer from the good draw and look to take luck out of the equation, can run a final 400m split that'll beat this lot.
Lionel Left Me - 1pt @ 3.40
Mildura R6 No.1 - MATAGAMI
This is a nice horse returning for the first time since September last year, nervous with no jump-outs etc. to go on but class alone I think he'll be winning. Was good enough to be competitive in a good race at Caulfield and has beaten the likes of Lord Esprit and Orange River (good talent) which is enough to be winning this, No excuses from the box seat.
Matagami - 1pt @ 2.80
Stony Creek R3 No.2 - EQUIDANT
Gee I thought he jumped out well at Caulfield 1/3 over the 800m (46.72) in what was the mornings fastest heat, jumped well and was put under a stranglehold right through the final 400m. He looks to be in tremendous order and the way Stony Creek plays (often favours those on-speed) should suit, he'll put himself there early and be mighty hard to beat against a very average bunch.
Equidant - 1pt @ 4.20
Stony Creek R5 No.6 - AUTUMN TIME
She's a nice horse this and her effort at Moonee Valley two weeks ago over the 1000m was good, awkwardly positioned in running but did manage to find plenty and stick on well through the line. The quality isnt overwhelming this afternoon and from a more friendly draw she'll be the one mapped to win it and like she's back up to 1100m. Drops 2kgs for the run at The Valley into this afternoon!
Autumn Time - 1pt @ 3.60
Corowa R3 No.12 - SENORITA ON SAFARI
Thought she's chased really well over the shorter trips of late, often on days dominated by those closer to the early speed. The fact she gets to 1300m and only carries 53.5kgs after the claim from Sweeney are major positives. Big field should ensure a genuine tempo and that will give her every chance to reel off a big final 400m split and come over the top.
Senorita On Safari - 1pt @ 5.50
Wellington R7 No.8 - SUGARPARMA
She's finished on the heels of some very good ones in her most recent efforts in town (live Golden Slipper chances) so the margins are nothing to be ashamed of heading into a race of this nature. The fact the blinkers go on are a great sign of intention from connections, she'll no doubt take closer order from the favourable draw and that she only gets in on the minimum is a major positive. Can be a touch too classy for them in my opinion.
Sugarparma - 1pt @ 5.00