Pakenham R2 No.8 - MODDA MISS
Went super fresh at Geelong (synthetic) over the 1300m, made plenty of ground when well back and ran through the line super. Winner box-seated and had every favour so I reckon theres some merit in this run. Clearly needs further and should relish the step to a mile, speed looks ok on paper so she should have every chance to again be strong late. Only fitter/improved for that run two weeks ago!
Modda Miss - 1pt @ 8.00
Pakenham R3 No.4 - REWARDING EFFORT
Didn't go a yard on the soft deck at Mornington when resuming just over a week ago (1200m), got shuffled back into an awful position in running and really never looked likely. Very keen he improves significantly second-up onto the pro-ride surface here at Pakenham and if anything he'll be better suited at the 1400m. Will again be likely to look to try and position up just worse than midfield/cover, just needs a cart into the race to be home strong late over the top.
Rewarding Effort - 1pt @ 4.80
Pakenham R4 No.3 - COMADI
Is easily good enough to handle whats a fairly average lot. They elected to go back from the wide alley here two weeks ago over the 1400m and look to be strong late, he rattled home (solid splits) but gave a massive start to the eventual winner (was handy) and just couldn't reel him in. You'd think from gate 1 they'll be fairly prominent in running today and as a result be too good, third-up off a 12 month break you'd be expecting him to be getting close from a fitness perspective.
Comadi - 1pt @ 1.85
Pakenham R8 No.5 - OSTERIA
Comes through the right sort of form races to be very competitive at his first crack at the mile. Made even/ok ground at Geelong in a race dominated by the leader at Geelong on the pro-ride and gave every indication M.Cumani has him cherry-ripe for 1600m. Should see Gauci take him forward from the wide alley (may even find the box seat) and track the leaders every where they go. He'll be strong at the end of the trip and has finished on the heels of much better gallopers than this!
Osteria - 1pt @ 5.50
Pakeham R10 No.4 - WALLED CITY
Come up good overs, is clearly the horse I want to be with here, his win fresh was excellent at Geelong back in early May over the 1200m (runner-up since a dominant victor) and then made enormous ground second-up over the 1300m in a race dominated by the leaders. Clearly can take good benefit third-up here and if anything better at 1400m!
Walled City - 1pt @ 6.00