Tom Gilmore's best bets for Pakenham and Gosford.
Leg 1 - 1, 5, 7, 8
Leg 2 - 1, 2, 4, 9
Leg 3 - 4, 7, 9, 14
Leg 4 - 1, 9, 12, 13
$100 = 40%
Pakenham R1 No.4 - SEGOVIA
Liked his work fresh at Geelong 11 days ago over the 1000m (pro-ride) in what was a slick maiden, think the winner looks above average (gelded/from good yard) and the runner-up had been a performing exceptionally against Stakes/Group competitors as a 2yo. This fella with arguably a touch of luck should have won the race (did protest), so with natural improvement and the horses around him not being at the level of that latest maiden, he should take beating. Gets a PR on the map from the gate and should be a bit too slick for them.
Segovia - 1pt @ 3.60
Next Best: Pakenham R3 No.3 - LAKERS LASS
Has been crying out to win a race this prep, her efforts have been particularly good but she's seemingly always found one better. Thought she made terrific ground against the pattern of the day at Geelong 11 days ago when progressing to the 1300m. They ran slick early splits and she just couldn't go with them, dropped out rounding the bend and then proceeded to pick up the bit and rocket home when it was all over (closing sections sound!). The extra 100m will certainly suit and gets a huge jockey upgrade with M.Walker taking the ride. She can sit closer here today and win!
Lakers Lass - 1pt @ 3.60
Roughie: Pakenham R5 No.7 - MANDANA
Found something third-up/mile here on the pro-ride four weeks ago when rolling to the front and proving too good for them. She was jumping from 1300m on that occasion so you'd have to think she's taken good benefit and should only improve having her second-crack at the trip. Draws favourably for this, that latest win was the first time we've seen her really push forward so fancy C.Parish will look to again be positive early. If she can get some soft mid-race
fractions she'll take plenty of catching.
Mandana - 1pt @ 8.50
Pakenham R6 No.4 - THE ULTIMATUM
Was six weeks between runs when winning over the 2200m here seven days ago, tremendous training performance under those circumstances and I'd be very confident coming into this that he'd find 1-2 lengths physically. Inside marble for him suits, he'll punch up and be fairly prominent early looking to track the leaders everywhere they go, all he'll need is a room to improve from the 600m and he'll be every chance. Drops 1kg at the weights and despite 'going up in grade', he can rate to a very similar mark to latest win and get it done again here.
The Ultimatum - 1pt @ 3.50
Gosford R3 No.9 - ECHAPPE
Trialled nicely before resuming at Grafton 5 weeks ago over the 1200m, was just no match for a couple of smart/fitter gallopers (both been competitive in QLD Saturday grade since), looked like a horse that would certainly improve for the outing and don't mind they've kept her fresh. Gets in well relative weights (carries 52kgs after D.Panya claim) and stable did scratch her from a race yesterday in favour of this. Think she'll ping the lids from the wide draw, find the front (pattern suits) and be too strong for them to run down late.
Echappe - 1pt @ 3.80
Best Bet (x2 Stake): Gosford R5 No.9 - ROSA CAROLINA
Kiwi import on debut for K.Lees here this afternoon, she's certainly got a touch of quality this mare - in her two starts to date she just missed on debut to Heroic Valour (since Stakes winner) and then progressed second-up/1200m at G2 level to again go down narrowly. Those were 1000m and 1200m respectively so considering her bloodlines (by Savabeel) suggest they are well short of her best trip. Recent trial at Warwick Farm (12/9) was terrific over 800m, trucked around under her own steam and gave every indication she'd be mighty tough to beat fresh. Worth following into the spring.
Rosa Carolina - 1pt @ 2.40