Brisbane Roar v Wellington Phoenix - Saturday 17:15, Fox Sports 4

Brisbane have managed just one win in their last four to lose their spot at the top of the table and they lost a key clash at the Wanderers last week, whom they now trail by four points. Wellington, meanwhile, picked up a surprise home win against Victory to leave themselves in sixth and just a point behind the Roar and very much in the mix this season.

Brisbane have won three of four unbeaten home games this season, though those three wins came against the current bottom three and last season 5th placed Wellington were the only top-half side that they managed to beat at home. Their home record against sides that finished between 4th and 7th last season was W1-D0-L3 with both teams scoring in all four of these games (they also drew 1-1 against 5th placed City this season) and all four having at least three goals.

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After a defeat against the Jets in the opening game of the season Wellington’s only other defeats have come against Victory and the Wanderers, the top two teams in the league. They beat Brisbane at home in a 3-2 thriller and their games have tended to be high scoring affairs all season with six of nine seeing at least three goals as they are yet to keep a clean sheet and look unlikely to break their duck against Brisbane, who have scored in 14 of their 17 home games since the start of last season, the exceptions being against Victory and Sydney. Wellington have only lost two of their last nine away games, with those defeats coming against the Wanderers and Victory this season, and their record against sides that finished between 3rd and 7th last season was W3-D1-L3 as both teams scored in six of these games and these six also saw at least three goals.

Both teams have scored in four of Brisbane’s last five home games against Wellington, with these four also seeing at least three goals and since Wellington have definitely been an ‘overs’ team this season so we expect there to be goals in this one.

Over 2.5 Goals - 1pt @ 1.83