Melbourne Victory/Melbourne Victory

The Victory’s defeat in the Melbourne derby made it four losses on the bounce, a fate they’ve suffered for the first time, and as a result the Champions have slipped down to fifth and trail the Wanderers by seven points. A few weeks ago Perth at home would have been the ideal fixture to snap out of a bad run, but Kenny Lowe’s side have won two of three unbeaten games to move off the bottom of the table up to eighth.

Victory’s slump can in part be explained by a gruelling schedule that has seen them play four away games in a row, starting in Wellington, then travelling across the country from Sydney to Perth before returning to Melbourne for the derby on Saturday just a few days after playing Perth. They’ll be glad to return to AAMI Park as they’ve won all four games there this season and scored at least twice in each of these matches. They’ve managed just one clean sheet though and a 3-0 win over Wellington was the only victory by more than one goal.

While Melbourne have struggled with a tough run of away games, Perth have conversely taken advantage of a run of three straight home games, including a win over Victory themselves. However, they’ve lost all five of their away games this season, failing to score in three of these defeats though they have travelled to each of the current top three already and only the 5-1 defeat at City was by more than one goal.
With such a massive disparity between these sides’ home and away form, the Victory price looks to be somewhat inflated by their poor away form and Perth’s recent results at home. We expect Victory to bounce back here and since they’ve led at half-time in each of their four home wins this season, while Perth have trailed at half-time in three of their last four on the road, we’re backing the home side to take control of this one early and go on to win.

Recommendation: Melbourne Victory/Melbourne Victory HT/FT at 2.23
Melbourne Victory/Melbourne Victory - 1pt @ 2.23