Melbourne Victory v Adelaide United - Friday 19:30, Fox Sports 4

Victory twice came from behind to earn a 2-2 draw in a thrilling Melbourne Derby at AAMI Park on Saturday and as a result they find themselves in fifth, trailing their Melbourne rivals on goal difference and league leaders Brisbane by six points. Adelaide, meanwhile, also came from behind to beat the Mariners relatively easily (they were 3-1 up before Central Coast found a 94th minute consolation). That win means they’re now a point ahead of Victory in third and with 27 points and no defeats from their last 11 games, they’re undoubtedly the form team in the division.

Victory have now managed just three wins in their last 12 and are out to 6.5 4th favourites to retain their title. Their struggles have largely been on the road, however, and their home record remains an impressive W6-D2-L0, with the draws coming against Perth and the Wanderers. They’ve led at half-time in seven of these games, though only managed three clean sheets and only two of these wins were by more than one goal. Their record when hosting top-four sides since the start of last season is W4-D3-L1, with both teams scoring in seven of these games, six seeing at least three goals and half seeing at least four strikes.

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Having failed to win any of their opening eight games, Adelaide turned things around with a 1-0 home win in week nine and have now scored 22 goals in 11 games whilst conceding just eight. Their away record during that run is W3-D2-L0 with the wins coming in their last three road games. In addition to beating the Mariners, they became only the second side to win at Perth this season thanks to a 3-1 win and they also were resounding 4-1 winners at league leaders Brisbane. Prior to these three away wins they also managed a goalless draw at the Wanderers and if we add to that a pair of away wins at last season’s runners-up Sydney, they clearly have an appetite for the big away days.

Adelaide did lose on the road at Victory last season in a 3-2 thriller (their fifth defeat in their last five trips to Victory) and we expect this one to be full of goals as well. Both teams have scored in eight of the nine meetings between these sides since 2010/11 and the last five have all had more than two goals, with two of the last three seeing at least five strikes. Adelaide’s last three on the road all had more than three goals and since Victory’s home games against the top teams also tend to be full of goals, we’re backing Over 3.5 Goals in this one.
Over 3.5 Goals - 1pt @ 2.7