Melbourne City v Brisbane Roar

Excitement is expected here as fourth hosts first with just four games remaining in the regular season. Over 2.5 goals is generally around 1.53 here and it’s difficult to argue with that short looking price given the only team to have scored more than the visitors’ 43 goals this season are Melbourne City. The hosts have netted an incredible 55 times so far including 29 times in their 11 home fixtures.

The usually free-flowing City side were involved in an uncharacteristic gritty 1-0 away win at Adelaide last season but at home their games are very rarely dull. Under Schip, 75% of Melbourne City’s home games have had Over 2.5 Goals stretching back to the midway stages of the 2013/14 season. More recently, all of their last 11 home fixtures have had Over 2.5 Goals and eight have had at least four strikes. The hosts have a fantastic home record and even when conceding this term they’ve gone W6-D2-L2.

For a team leading the table with so few games remaining it’s surprising to see that the Roar have won just three road games this term and two of those came at sides in the bottom-four (Sydney FC ad the woeful Central Coast). Seven of their 11 away fixtures have had Over 2.5 Goals including their last four though they’ve lost three of the four conceding 14 goals on the way!

Melbourne City have won five in a row hosting the Roar and they can make it six here in style. Their leaky back-line suggests great value in the home win with both teams netting at 3.35 but the 2.30 for any home win is our preferred route here. Overs looks short but with these two there’s nothing wrong with backing the juicier prices available on Over 3.5, 4.5 and 5.5 Goals.

Get $6 for Harry Novillo to score and Melbourne City to win with Ladbrokes

Get $10 Brandon Borello to score and Roar to win with Ladbrokes
Melbourne City Win - 1pt @ 2.20