Melbourne City v Wellington Phoenix

City made it three wins on the bounce as they followed an excellent 1-0 win at Adelaide with a convincing 3-1 win at home to Brisbane, despite being 1-0 down at half-time as they took advantage of the visitors being reduced to 10 men just before the hour mark. Wellington, meanwhile, followed a win with a defeat for the third time in recent weeks, this time as they were beaten 2-1 at home to Perth and they remain down in 9th.

City’s three goals against Brisbane took their tally to 58 in 24 games (2.4 gpg) but John van’t Schip will have been particularly pleased with the concession of just one goal in their last three, this after they managed just one clean sheet in their first 21 games this season. Their record at AAMI Park this season is W8-D2-L2, with Brisbane the only side to perform better at home this term. They’ve scored at least twice in 11 of their 12 home games and led at the break in eight, but managed just one clean sheet. When hosting bottom-three sides their record this term is W3-D0-L1 as they failed to keep a clean sheet in any of these matches and all four saw more than three goals.

Wellington have conceded 45 goals in their 24 games so far this season (1.9 gpg) as only the Mariners have been worse defensively, while City have only been marginally better as they’ve conceded 39 goals. Phoenix’s away record this term reads W3-D2-L8, though two of those wins have come in their last three road games against the Sydney sides. They’ve managed to score in 10 of these 13 games, including their last six, but kept just one clean sheet and conceded at least twice in nine of these games. When travelling to top-three teams this term they’re W1-D0-L3, though they managed to score in all four of these games and only trailed at the break in one.

Ladbrokes have boosted the odds of a Blake Powell goal and Wellington Phoenix win to a massive $14.

Indeed, Wellington have now led at the break in their last three on the road, while City have trailed at the break in two of their last three at home, but went on to win both of these games strongly. As a result Wellington HT/City FT is worth a punt at 21.0, as is backing City to win and both teams to score at 2.65, given Wellington’s strong scoring record on the road and City’s lack of clean sheets at home. However, City have defenders Hughes and Wilkinson as well as key central midfielder Mooy and as a result the best bet looks to be backing there to be goals. Six of City’s last seven at home have seen at least four goals, as have Phoenix’s last six on the road, including three 3-1 defeats, a scoreline that is available to back at a tempting 12.0 here.
Over 3.5 goals - 1pt @ 2.02