Four wins in their last six games of the season saw Brisbane climb up to third and as a result they host the Champions here, who could only manage 6th.
Brisbane Roar v Melbourne Victory
Victory started the season strongly with five wins in their opening seven games, but since then they managed just six wns in 20. They’ve struggled in particular on the road where they had a W4-D3-L7 record and all four of their wins came against bottom-four sides. When travelling to top-half teams their record was just W0-D2-L5 as they failed to score in four of these games and also trailed at the break in four.
The importance of home advantage when it comes to the Finals can be seen from the fact that since 2005/06 home sides have won 45% of games in the regular season but that increases to 57% in the play-offs and to 67% since 2012/13, the first season when the finals were in the current format. It’s arguably even more important in this tie given Brisbane’s strength at home throughout the regular season and Victory’s struggles on the road and as a result we’re happy to side with Roar here at odds-against.
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