Brisbane Roar v Melbourne Victory

Indeed, these two sides met on the final day of the season in a goalless draw at AAMI Park last weekend and are the most successful clubs in the Finals Series, with three titles to each of their names. Brisbane’s home record of W11-D2-L1 was the best in the division in the regular season as they scored in all 14 of their home games, led at the break in half, but managed only four clean sheets. As a result 12 of their home matches saw more than two goals and half saw more than three. When hosting top-six sides, Brisbane’s record was W6-D1-L1 as league winners Adelaide were the only side to take away three points from the Suncorp Stadium. Three of Roar’s four home clean sheets came in these matches though, including a 5-0 win over Victory themselves towards the end of the season.

Victory started the season strongly with five wins in their opening seven games, but since then they managed just six wns in 20. They’ve struggled in particular on the road where they had a W4-D3-L7 record and all four of their wins came against bottom-four sides. When travelling to top-half teams their record was just W0-D2-L5 as they failed to score in four of these games and also trailed at the break in four.

The importance of home advantage when it comes to the Finals can be seen from the fact that since 2005/06 home sides have won 45% of games in the regular season but that increases to 57% in the play-offs and to 67% since 2012/13, the first season when the finals were in the current format. It’s arguably even more important in this tie given Brisbane’s strength at home throughout the regular season and Victory’s struggles on the road and as a result we’re happy to side with Roar here at odds-against.

Get $4.5 for Jamie MacLaren to score a goal and Brisbane Roar win in normal time with Ladbrokes.

Get $6 for Besart Berisha to score a goal and Melbourne Victory win in normal time with Ladbrokes.

Brisbane Roar - 1pt @ 2.15